Kian Gadsby
In the final game of the English football calendar for the 2024/25 season, Oldham Athletic defeated Southend United 3-2 in a pulsating National League Promotion Final to secure their return to the EFL.
Whilst there were jubilant scenes in the Latics end of Wembley, one team watching at home were left devastated by the blow.
York City, who had finished second in the National League with an incredible 96 points, narrowly missed out on the league title and automatic promotion to Barnet. They were then defeated 3-0 by Oldham in the semi-final, consigning them to another season in the National League and ending their dreams of an EFL return.
If the system mirrored any of the ones present in the three divisions above them, they would have secured automatic promotion and would be enjoying a season in League Two. Instead, their sensational season counted for nothing, and they are left languishing in the fifth tier.
Scenarios like this, where York finished 23 points clear of their play-off opponent and still didn’t get promoted, have become the rallying cry behind the National League’s ‘3up’ campaign for a third promotion place.
After the play-off final, the Minstermen’s owner, Julie-Anne Uggla, showed her support for the campaign as she published an open letter expressing her frustration with the current set-up by saying, “The current system is simply not sustainable anymore.”
She is not alone in that belief. Since the launch of ‘3up’, the calls have only grown stronger, and as games on Saturday 17th of November kick off at 3:03 pm to highlight their case, the National League is finally attracting the country’s attention to their cause.
The prospect of the National League gaining a third promotion spot to the EFL has become significantly more plausible, and what once seemed like a distant dream may be on the cusp of becoming reality.
In this article, Kian Gadsby explores the historical relationship between the Football League and the division below, before examining the arguments for and against introducing a third promotion spot for the National League.
The article concludes with his verdict, as he presents his views on this pivotal issue for the lower tiers of English football.
The History of Promotion to the EFL
The Football League was founded in 1888, with 12 clubs forming the original division. Over time, this single league rapidly expanded, becoming the four-tier, 92-team system that we now know and love today.
From the Football League’s foundation until 1988, admission was decided by a vote, as teams at the top of the National League had to apply for re-election to the EFL against struggling Football League teams.
However, that system often benefited the Football League clubs, as they would typically vote for each other to retain their place rather than allow a new side to come up.
As a result, only seven clubs were promoted from Non-League to replace a Football League team between 1950 and 1988, when this set-up was finally deemed unfair.
From 1988, the winners of the Football Conference, as it was known back then, were granted automatic promotion. This system remained in place, except during three seasons when ground regulations prevented Kidderminster Harriers, Macclesfield Town, and Stevenage Borough from being promoted, until 2002, when, following pressure from the National League, a second promotion place was finally introduced.
This set-up has remained in place until today, under which the National League Champions are granted automatic promotion, and the teams below them (currently from 2nd to 7th) compete for the other spot in the play-offs.
The Case For
In a statement published by the National League when they launched this campaign, National League Chair Jack Pearce MBE outlined the core arguments for a third promotion place when he said:
“An extra promotion place for these clubs into the EFL would create an invaluable aspiration for all these clubs and supporters, plus clubs in the leagues below. We simply can’t wait any longer for parity within the game.
“As well as increased financial stability, ‘3UP’ would mean a fluid football pyramid where teams can win promotion from the bottom to the top fairly. It will give more opportunity to clubs relegated from EFL League 2 to ‘bounce back’.”
These arguments, if valid, form a compelling case for awarding a third promotion place.
History often indicates when change is needed, so let’s analyse recent data to see if it supports Pearce’s claim.
How Fluid is the Football Pyramid?
With promotion and relegation possible between every level of the English football pyramid, our league system is one of the most exciting and open of any worldwide.
This has led to a plethora of success stories, highlighting that teams can quickly rise through the divisions through good management and astute investment.
However, there does appear to be a bottleneck at the top end of the National League, which inhibits sides from progressing out of the division, impacting the tables in both that level and above in League Two.
This is best demonstrated when considering the fates of sides that were successful in escaping the division, as there are more success stories than cases of failure. In recent years, many who got out of Non-League went on to secure a quick promotion into League One or beyond, whilst no team has ever been immediately relegated back down to the National League.
When looking for examples, the team that has undoubtedly enjoyed the most success following difficulties escaping the National League were Wrexham.
Wrexham have enjoyed a remarkable and well-documented rise from Non-League misery following their takeover from Hollywood stars Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney.
However, escaping the National League proved to be a challenge. Despite the new owners investing a fortune into the club, in Wrexham’s first full season, they finished 2nd in the league behind Stockport County, confining them to a place in the play-offs.
There, they were defeated 5-4 by Grimsby Town in a thrilling affair. The Mariners ended up winning the final at Wembley, meaning Wrexham were forced to spend another season outside of the EFL.
The following season proved equally dramatic, as they were forced to compete with Notts County in an exceptional title race.
Both sides amassed over 100 points, and whilst Wrexham ultimately prevailed and Notts County won the play-offs, the prospect that either side could have failed to win promotion after such a superb campaign provides a strong argument in itself that there should be two automatic promotion spots from the National League.
Once Wrexham returned to the Football League, they flew up the divisions. There was no stopping them as the Red Dragons earned immediate promotion from both League One and League Two to complete a remarkable turnaround by going from Non-League to the Championship within three years.
The speed of their rise following their anguish in the National League suggests that the bottleneck was indeed in the fifth tier, and a third promotion place would help to make the system more fluid.
Five of the six teams who were promoted from the National League in the last three seasons finished in the top half of League 2 immediately after promotion (the exception being Notts County who secured a play-off place the following year), and this suggests that the football pyramid is not as fluid as it should be, as teams at the top end of the National League are proving to be exceptionally capable of thriving in League Two.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, while teams promoted out of the National League in recent years have gone on to thrive, many of those relegated to the division have struggled to recover and return to the EFL.
Indeed, since 2000, only 5 of the 48 sides, or 10.4 per cent, to be relegated from League Two secured an immediate return to the National League.
Considering you only have to go back to 2018 to find 5 teams who were relegated from the Championship and bounced straight back the following year, this is a worrying statistic.
With former football league clubs including Southend United, York City, Scunthorpe United, and Rochdale missing out on immediate promotion and left languishing at this level, a third promotion space would create a larger opportunity for these sides, and any teams that will be relegated down in the future, to return to the EFL.
A third promotion place would allow more teams the opportunity to compete at a higher level, finally resolving the fluidity issue that currently exists between the National League and the EFL.
The Argument Against
Whilst the above cases point to a strong argument for this third place to be introduced, there are two key counterpoints to consider when deciding if the third place should be implemented.
Would We See Boom or Bust?
Firstly, introducing a third relegation place may plunge sides struggling at the bottom of League Two into financial ruin.
A third relegation place would see more teams go down, meaning that there is a greater chance that teams languishing at the lower end of League Two end up succumbing to the drop and lose the lucrative EFL TV money.
For many teams in that position, finances are already tight, but when faced with the damaging prospect of losing some critical revenue, they may be forced to make some challenging decisions when considering investment in a bid to avoid relegation.
A similar gap has already emerged between the Premier League and the Championship, as the financial rewards of securing promotion to the top flight are so vast that teams are willing to invest more than they can afford to in order to earn promotion.
Whilst this approach has proved successful for teams like Aston Villa and Leicester City, other sides such as Derby County, Reading, and Sheffield Wednesday have been less fortunate, and they all ended up relegated to League One after losing a play-off final and falling into financial hardships as a consequence.
This example from higher up the pyramid serves as a warning that teams currently in League Two may go out of business, either if they are forced to invest significantly in a desperate bid to avoid falling out of the EFL, or due to the loss of revenue upon relegation.
As a club going under is the last thing that any football fan wants to see, the prospect of more teams suffering after facing a huge drop in revenue is a worrying one. Therefore, it is absolutely vital that the financial implications of introducing a third promotion place are considered before any decision is taken.
Lack of Financial Regulation
The other key concern voiced by critics of ‘3up’ is the difference in financial regulation between EFL outfits and those in the National League.
Indeed, in the EFL, there are very strict financial regulations that clubs must abide by, whereas Non-League clubs face much more lenient restrictions that, in some cases, permit owners to invest more into the club.
For example, clubs in League 1 and 2 are restricted by a wage cap (up to 60 and 50 per cent of annual revenue respectively), whereas National League sides do not face any such challenges, and are free to spend as much as they wish on their playing squad.
This means that sides in the fifth tier can build a strong, marketable squad that is already capable of thriving in League Two when they inevitably earn promotion.
They can then use the core of that side to take them further up the pyramid, without investing more into the squad on transfer fees, whilst revenue earned from sponsorships on the back of their previous successes will ensure that they can keep their revenue, and so their wage cap, higher than their competitors.
This has led to the National League serving as a building block for its teams, rather than a bottleneck, as they can assemble a squad in that division and then use the momentum to push directly for promotion the following season with players who are familiar with each other and their tactical system.
If this is the case, then a third promotion place would further inhibit teams in League Two from building their squads to facilitate them climbing leagues.
This would mean that those sides are less capable of earning promotion to League One and beyond than their new opponents, meaning we could see either the transfer or worsening of the issue of a lack of fluidity in the football pyramid.
What Do The Fans Say?
Amongst supporters, there is a growing consensus that the National League should receive that third spot.
Luke Walsh, a Halifax Town supporter and a prominent name in National League media, thanks to his YouTube channel The Luke Walsh Football Podcast, said, “I think it’s overdue,” when asked for his thoughts on the prospective changes, before passionately explaining that he feels like it is too difficult for sides stuck at the level to escape.
“I think it’s overdue considering no side has ever dropped straight back into the National League after promotion. Not to mention the likes of Luton, Wrexham and Lincoln who are just a few of a very long list of sides who have shot through the divisions since getting promoted.
“Sides historically too big for this division get trapped, making it harder for the smaller clubs to even get a shot of promotion. The gap is as close as it gets between divisions, yet it has the least spots for promotion.”
That sentiment is echoed by supporters across the pyramid, as even fans of EFL sides feel that implementing another opportunity to escape the fifth tier would be beneficial.
In a statement given exclusively to Impact, The Scarf Bergara Wore, a media organisation that cover Stockport County, agreed, as they revealed that they felt like a third promotion place was “absolutely worthwhile,” after seeing their side fly through the EFL, having ended years of Non-League misery in 2022.
“A third promotion place from the National League is absolutely worthwhile. The gap between the bottom half of League Two and the top half of the National League is now so negligible that greater mobility between the two feels long overdue. Clubs like Harrogate and Newport have shown just how blurred that line has become.
“From a footballing perspective, a simple three-up, three-down system would make sense and tidy up what’s currently a bit of a ‘Hunger Games’ play-off system in the National League. Some of us have even floated the idea of eventually regionalising League Two to cut travel costs, boost attendances, and make the pyramid more sustainable.
“Of course, the financial implications can’t be ignored, as adding an extra promotion place would mean another relegation from League Two, and the redistribution of broadcast or prize money would need serious thought. But on sporting merit alone, it’s hard to argue against greater movement between the EFL and the National League.”
The Verdict
After considering the information about the possibility of the National League being awarded a third promotion place, I firmly believe that they should be awarded it as soon as possible.
Although there are some valid counterpoints and issues that would need to be addressed, with the introduction of the new Independent Football Regulator, these problems could be resolved without causing further harm.
The difference between Non-League football and the EFL is no longer as vast as it once was, and I believe that the National League and its teams will continue to grow if this place is granted.
Kian Gadsby
Featured image courtesy of Peter Glaser via Unsplash. Image use license found here (Unsplash). No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @theenterprise_nl via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
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