Kian Gadsby
Fans often claim that they influence games. From lucky pants to strict matchday routines, many have their own superstitions that they embrace. If their team wins or loses, it’s their fault.
Deep down, most know it’s not true. Everyone wins and loses at some point over the season, so the ebbing and flowing of results is inevitable – regardless of the decisions you make. While loud, passionate supporters can influence the outcome by encouraging their side, fundamentally, results on the pitch come down to the players on it. The concept of an ordinary person influencing a match is a comical prospect.
Unless you’re me. Before their recent match against Swindon Town, I had attended 10 Notts County games. My record stood at three draws (a 0-0 and two games with late equalising goals for Bromley) and seven defeats.
Zero victories.
One match like this, or even two or three, would be unlucky. But 10?
Fortunately, the Swindon game ended in a 2-1 victory for Notts, breaking the duck at the 11th attempt. However, on my way home, I couldn’t help but wonder whether my presence had previously hindered Notts County’s home form.
I’m loosely using a binomial distribution to test this, as that model fits with the data I have if we assume matches are independent of each other. I’m testing the theory that my presence reduces their chances of winning, using a null hypothesis with probability equal to the proportion of home games won.
I first went to Meadow Lane near the start of the 2024/25 season, and in that time frame, Notts County have played 43 matches at home. This includes 37 in the league, and six across miscellaneous cup endeavours. They have amassed 21 wins, an underwhelming total considering they have been chasing promotion to League One throughout this time, but home victories are clearly not a rare occurrence.
Therefore, I feel like it is logical to assume that the Magpies win at home at a constant average rate of 21/43, or 48.8% of their games.
If we discount the Swindon game for now, then the ratio falls to 20/42, which is equivalent to 10/21 or 47.6%. Using this as the win probability in my Binomial distribution alongside a sample of 10 games, the chance of 0 wins is 0.1555%.
That is the equivalent of 1/643. Statistically, we have sufficient evidence to reject the null and suggest that it was my fault.
Of course, that idea is ludicrous. After all, I just go to games either to support the team or cover them as media. I can assure you that I have absolutely no influence over tactics, player choices, or anything to do with the team at all. I was just really unlucky.
Thanks to Matthew Dennis’ winner 17 seconds after his introduction from the bench, the streak has been broken. Notts County’s abysmal record when I am in attendance is surely no longer my fault.
Or is it?
Remarkably, if you perform the same calculations and include the Swindon game, the probability that Notts won only a maximum of once is 0.723%. That number is higher than before, but by the brutal honesty of statistics, the blame is apparently mine.
Generalising to include the average League Two home win record over that time frame paints my record in a better light. Using a home win probability of 41.7% gives a probability of at most one win in 11 of 2.35%. That is a small improvement, but still enough to reject the null hypothesis at a 5% threshold.
As I’m sure many County fans are going to be disappointed to hear after reading this article, I’m not going to stop going to Notts County matches. I’m hoping that Notts can turn their form around and climb up the table towards a promotion push to League One, and, for my personal sake, I hope they can keep winning to erase the notion that their defeats are somehow my fault.
However, if you see me on my way to Meadow Lane, then I will not blame you for treating me like a black cat and turning around to head home again.
Kian Gadsby
Featured image courtesy of Kian Gadsby. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of Kian Gadsby. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 2 courtesy of Kian Gadsby. No changes were made to this image.
