Oscar McKevitt Flack
War is once again raging across the Middle East. And once again, America is unnecessarily at war in the Gulf. The first Gulf War, in 1991, saw America assemble a coalition to eject the army of Saddam Hussein, who was occupying Kuwait. This was a time at the end of the Cold War when, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, America had entered its unipolar moment.
The second Gulf War, in 2003, saw Saddam’s regime toppled with relative ease. However, war does not stop when the fighting stops. U.S. President George W. Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, fuelled by a liberal interventionalist zeal, hoped the invasion of Iraq would be the catalyst for a wave of democracy that would spread across the Middle East. Instead, they found themselves trapped in a brutal counterinsurgency campaign for nearly a decade – it took almost 20 years to piece Iraq back together.
It seems to be another case of the West, acting out of a sense of moral duty (or as neo-Crusaders given its name of Operation Epic Fury), intervening in a Middle Eastern state to spread democracy and freedom.
The third Gulf War, which began on February 28th, seems to be another case of the West, acting out of a sense of moral duty (or as neo-Crusaders, given its name of Operation Epic Fury), intervening in a Middle Eastern state to spread democracy and freedom. However, it would appear that the spectre of Iraq that has hung over any and every thought of military adventurism has been ignored. The mercurial president has offered vague and ever-changing reasons for war: a response to near-half century Iranian aggression; strikes meant to encourage the Iranian people to rise up; regime change; and, as a pre-emptive and defensive strike.
What is different this time around, however, is who America is spreading democracy with. The UK-US special relationship is in tatters, with the American president throwing a tantrum that, for once, a British Prime Minister has used critical thinking and common sense – capturing the British public mood – to weigh up the potential fallout of being dragged into another war in the Middle East. So, in the absence of Britain – America’s little island that couldn’t – please welcome to the stage Israel.
The dynamic duo made short work of killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, only for him to be replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Mojtaba is a somewhat mysterious figure. He has never held a position in government office, nor has he been interviewed or given speeches; his only appearance is in a limited number of photos. His ascension to the throne is controversial, however. The 1979 Iranian Revolution, which saw the ousting of the Shah’s monarchy, was premised on the idea that a supreme leader should be chosen for his religious and leadership credentials, not via hereditary succession.
Spillover
The closing of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the biggest shock to global supply in petroleum’s history.
America and Israel may have ignited this war – quite literally, as several oilfields and tankers produce plumes of smoke – yet it is the Gulf Arab states that are paying the price. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the biggest shock to global supply in petroleum’s history. Last year the waterway saw 14m barrels of crude and 4m barrels of refined oil per day (b/d) – that’s around 14% of global output – pass through it. In the month before the war, around 76 tankers would pass through the strait every day; since then, however, only five or fewer risked it. Trump, in a classic display of his turbulent whims, has both offered help to ship-owners by proposing military escorts for tankers and demanded the very same ship-owners to “show some guts”. The promised help to tankers, much like the promised help to Iranian protesters, has yet to materialise.
The third Gulf War has drawn in the eight countries that border the Persian Gulf, and, even though Britain was not part of the initial US-Israeli strikes, HMS Dragon – along with all its problems – has been deployed to Cyprus.
Since this war began, over 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones have been launched at the Gulf states
Since this war began, over 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones have been launched at the Gulf states; they are weighing up their response options. However, there is a problem in that the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) tend to ‘struggle with the co-operation bit’. The Gulf states do not trust anyone: Iran, Israel, America, or themselves.
Before the war, the six members of the GCC advised against America and Israel striking Iran, fearing that, as has been the case, they would be dragged into another Gulf war and that not only would Iran target them specifically – as many American military assets are housed in various Gulf states – but America would leave the Iranian regime bruised but intact.
Trump has joined the Middle East Interventionists club with the likes of Bush and Blair.
The war is now in its second week, and there is no clear end in sight. What is clear, however, is the irony of Western military adventurism. Last year, in Riyadh, Donald Trump denounced “Western interventionists” and “nation-builders” who “wrecked far more nations than they built”. Trump has joined the Middle East Interventionists club with the likes of Bush and Blair.
Their wars were unnecessary, uncalled for, and unproductive. The Iranian people may rise up; the regime, radicalised by the killing of its leader, may emerge intact yet more hardline. There is potential for civil war, sowing the seeds for a failed state. We do not know how or when this war will end, yet no matter how it ends, Messrs Trump and Netanyahu will proclaim victory.
When will we learn?
Oscar McKevitt Flack
Featured image courtesy of Moslem Daneshzadeh via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
For more Impact content and information on how to get involved, follow us on Instagram and connect with our Facebook page.
If you can’t get enough of our Features, connect with our section’s contributors’ page and follow us on Instagram.
