Tom Henigan
On Sunday 11th February, the Kansas City Chiefs will look to defend their Super Bowl title against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV. Whether you’re going to brave the 11:30pm kick-off on Sunday night or simply watching a rerun of the game on Monday, Tom Henigan has everything you need to know about this year’s instalment of the biggest game in American sports.
The Kansas City Chiefs – The Champions
The Chiefs can become the first team in 19 years to win the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons. They are led by Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, who already has two Most Valuable Player (MVP) awards, two Super Bowl wins, and two Super Bowl MVPs, in his first five seasons of starting, with this game being the conclusion to his sixth.
This season has been Mahomes’ worst statistics wise. But anyone who has watched the Chiefs play this year will know that Mahomes didn’t have much help from his receivers throughout the season. The Chiefs led the league in dropped passes in the regular season with 44. That stat was part of the reason that their offence this year hasn’t been what it looked like in previous years under Mahomes. In the 2022 season, the Chiefs ranked 1st in yards per game and in points per game. In this 2023 season however, they ranked 9th in yards per game, and 15th in points per game.
So how have the Chiefs found their way back to the Super Bowl?
This is the first time Mahomes has had a defence that ranks top five in points per game
Two reasons. One, the defence. This is the first time Mahomes has had a defence that ranks top five in points per game, and they were ranked number two in the NFL in the regular season, giving up just 17.3 points per game. In the playoffs they have been even better, allowing only 13.7 points per game, and doing that against three of the six highest scoring teams in the regular season.
This defence has two first team All-Pro players on it with Chris Jones on the interior of the defensive line, and Trent McDuffie at cornerback. McDuffie’s fellow cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed, also had a stellar season.
The second reason is that the entire offence has stepped up when it matters. One of the worst drops all season for Kansas City came in week 11 against the Eagles when Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) dropped a touchdown pass that would have given his team the lead with under two minutes remaining. After that drop, MVS faced a lot of criticism, but he stepped up in the divisional round against the Bills, where he had two catches for 30+ yards each.
Then, in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, he had a game-sealing 32-yard catch to send the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs’ win against the Ravens was also their first game all season where they didn’t drop a pass.
You have an offence that has seemingly put a poor regular season behind them
Travis Kelce, one of the best tight ends of all time, had his best game of the season against the Ravens with 11 catches off of 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. Pair that step up from the receivers with the fact that Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in his last six playoff games and has only been sacked twice in his last four, and you have an offence that has seemingly put a poor regular season behind them. Knowing he has an elite defence on the other side of the ball, Mahomes is able to play safe and efficient football, without having to worry about scoring 30+ like in previous years.
If the Chiefs are going to win this game, they need Travis Kelce to continue to play at an elite level, and will also need rookie receiver Rashee Rice, who has improved throughout the year, to have a big day. It is unlikely MVS will set the stat sheet alight, but Mahomes may well look to him in a big moment when Rice and Kelce are getting most of the defence’s focus.
The San Francisco 49ers – The Challengers
The 49ers finished the season with a 12-5 record and were the no. 1 seed in the NFC. At quarterback they have Brock Purdy, a player who was the very last pick of the 2022 NFL draft, giving him the dubious title of ‘Mr. Irrelevant.’ Despite that title, Purdy has impressed in his first two years in the league, taking the 49ers to the NFC championship game last season, where he left with an injury early, and leading them to the Super Bowl this year.
Many have questioned how great Purdy actually is
Many have questioned how great Purdy actually is given the fact he is surrounded by elite weapons, with four first team All-Pros around him on the offence. The fact is though, he has played at a very high level this year. He threw 31 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions and ranked top 5 in passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Looking at the 49ers’ weapons, their running back Christian McCaffery, the Offensive Player of the Year, led the league in rushing with 1,459 yards and had 564 receiving yards to go with that. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel had over 1,000 yards of total offence and his fellow wideout Brandon Aiyuk ranked 7th in the league in receiving yards. Purdy has George Kittle at tight end to throw to as well. Kittle was the only tight end this season to eclipse 1,000 yards. All these offensive weapons helped Purdy lead his team to scoring the 3rd most points out of any team this season.
Purdy has proven a lot of his critics wrong already in these playoffs
Purdy has proven a lot of his critics wrong already in these playoffs. Many analysts said he couldn’t win a game when trailing late on, but he trailed in the 4th quarter in the divisional round against the Packers and overcame a 17-point halftime deficit to defeat the Lions in the NFC championship.
The Chiefs’ defence will be his biggest test yet though. The last time Purdy played a top 2 scoring defence was on Christmas Day against the Ravens when he threw 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Purdy has an elite defence behind him as well though. They allowed the 3rd fewest points in the NFL this season.
However, the 49ers defence hasn’t always played to that elite standard in these playoffs, which led to them being 24-7 down at halftime of the NFC Championship game. They came through when it mattered with some big 4th down stops in that game to help take the team over the line, but their own defensive coordinator Steve Wilks described the defensive performance as unacceptable.
It’s hard to see them getting bullied like they did in that first half against the Lions
Given the elite players on the 49ers’ defence such as first team All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner and the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa at edge rusher, it’s hard to see them getting bullied like they did in that first half against the Lions, especially given the fact the Lions ranked 5th in rushing offence, whereas the Chiefs rank 19th.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has a notoriously bad record in games when he is trailing late on but given that his team has had two comebacks to get to this point, that bad record should be irrelevant to his players heading into this game.
The key battle: Can the Chiefs stop the run?
The 49ers will feel that they have a chance to run the ball well against a Kansas City defence that ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run. With their best weapon being their running back, the 49ers will feel their rushing offence, which ranked 3rd in the league, can have major success on Sunday. Of course, the Chiefs held the best rushing offence in the league, the Ravens, to just 81 yards on the ground.
The best way to defend against Patrick Mahomes is to keep him off the field
If the 49ers can get ahead though, and control the time of possession unlike the Ravens, then their rushing offence can take over this game. The best way to defend against Patrick Mahomes is to keep him off the field, and running the ball well is the easiest way to do that. Although the Chiefs have won games this year when teams have run well against them, like when they defeated the Bills in the playoffs despite Buffalo running for 182 yards, a scary stat for Kansas City is that the 49ers are 12-1 this season when McCaffery runs for 75+ yards.
Mahomes and his offence play a big role in stopping the 49ers’ run game as well. Unlike previous Chiefs offences, this group is much more about moving the ball down the field slowly but efficiently. The AFC Championship game against the Ravens was the perfect example of that, when the Chiefs had the ball for 15 more minutes than the Ravens and had a touchdown drive that lasted over 9 minutes.
If the Chiefs can dominate the time of possession, then that’ll likely force Brock Purdy into throwing the ball
That was a big reason why the Ravens abandoned the run game early on. If the Chiefs can dominate the time of possession, then that’ll likely force Brock Purdy into throwing the ball, and that’s where the Kansas City defence will feel they can dominate.
Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator, was excellent against the Ravens, and as well as Purdy has played this season, he is only a 2nd year quarterback. Spagnuolo will feel that if he can force two-time MVP Lamar Jackson into some big mistakes, he can force Purdy into them too. The Chiefs had the second most sacks this season with 57, and they are going up against an offensive line that, outside of Trent Williams, is questionable in pass blocking.
A matchup to watch out for is Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis [and] 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz
Chris Jones is the standout player for the Chiefs’ front seven but a matchup to watch out for is Chiefs edge rusher George Karlaftis going up against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz. Karlaftis had 10.5 sacks this season, and McKivitz was not exactly standout in pass protection, with just a 57.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade (all five offensive linemen for the 49ers had a better PFF run blocking grade than pass blocking grade).
If the 49ers want to have success on offence, they have to run the ball and stick to that gameplan. Kyle Shanahan has a history of abandoning the run in big situations, with Super Bowl LIV being a prime example.
Prediction: 49ers 28-24 Chiefs
Although it’s never wise to pick against Mahomes, more signs point to a 49ers win. Their strength on offence, running the ball, is the Chiefs’ weakness. While the Chiefs’ offence has looked better in the playoffs, the 49ers defend well against what the Chiefs do well. For example, they rank 4th in defending against tight ends, and Travis Kelce is the Chiefs’ best weapon. I think Kyle Shanahan will learn from his previous mistakes in big games and finally get his first ring.
Tom Henigan
Featured image courtesy of Brock Wegner via Unsplash. Image use license found here. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @chiefs via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 2 courtesy of @49ers via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 3 courtesy of @nfluk via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
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