Nour El-Kojok
Following 13 years of civil war, Syria has been liberated from the Assad family’s 50-year authoritarian regime. Within a mere 11 days, Syria’s capital, Damascus, fell to the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, ultimately forcing the Syrian government to withdraw and the Assad family to seek asylum within Russia. Syrians at home and abroad have since rejoiced in celebration following the takeover. The events in these recent months have proven to be the most historic in Syria’s decade-long conflict and offer its people a chance to be in control of their own governance.
Russia was unable to delegate the same aid it had previously allowed Syria due to its involvement in the Ukraine war; and Iran still in indirect conflict with Israel.
Syria has gone through a gruelling civil war between the government and rebel groups for over a decade due to mass corruption, lack of political freedom, and economic hardship. Throughout the war, many achievements came at a devastating cost: widespread destruction, a fractured opposition, and a prolonged humanitarian crisis; but new political and military actors rose, and ISIS had been defeated. The key turning point came in November when the HTS-led rebel forces, bolstered by various allied factions, launched a series of successful offensives. Various rebel groups had recognised that Syria’s long-term allies, Russia and Iran, were both weak due to their own respective conflicts. Russia was unable to delegate the same aid it had previously allowed Syria due to its involvement in the Ukraine war, and Iran still in indirect conflict with Israel.
On 5th of December, Hama had also been taken over by the HTS
HTS-led rebels and their allies launched an attack on the 27th of November, taking Aleppo, the second largest city within Syria, in just three days with reportedly little resistance. On 5th of December, Hama had also been taken over by the HTS, and only two days after had been able to secure the city of Homs. On the 8th of December, Damascus was captured, and a ‘historic’ rebel victory was recognised. Following the capture of the capital, a coalition government was formed, consisting of the HTS, the Syrian National Army (SNA), the Syrian Democratic Army (SDF), and more.
The significance of this victory will have a profound impact on the geopolitics of the Middle East, as many countries are now vying to assert their influence within Syria. Both Russia and Iran have undeniably lost a large amount of the influence they had previously asserted within the region, with Iran arguably being the biggest loser. Historically, Iran has used Syria as its link to its proxy group, Hezbollah, within Lebanon to continue its attacks on Israel. Currently, Iran is in the midst of a diplomatic dialogue discussing negotiations with HTS-led rebels to ensure the security of Shi’a Muslims in exchange for recognition in the new Syrian government. Russia had long utilised Syria as an integral part of exerting its influence within the Middle East, and had two military bases on the Syrian coast; Khmeimin, an air base, and Tartus, a naval base. While the current situation within Syria provides us with plenty of unknowns, Russia is currently in the midst of attempting to secure a deal with the new rebel leaders to maintain their bases.
On the flipside, various countries may now seek to reap the rewards of asserting their influence within Syria, with Turkiye likely being the biggest benefactor. Having long supported the Syrian National Army (SNA) in its fight against Kurdish groups, Turkiye has already achieved two of its main objectives: the removal of Assad and the strengthening of Syrian opposition forces.
Assad’s downfall signals a weakening of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance.
However, the SDF being a part of the coalition government may cause issues for Turkiye as it may cause an uproar among Kurds within Turkiye. Additionally, with the consistent fighting between the SDF and the Syrian National Army, a Turkish invasion may be imminent. For Western powers such as the USA and the UK, Assad’s downfall signals a weakening of the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance, but the rebel’s radical views and their stance against Israel may prove to be highly problematic. The evolving situation in Syria presents a dilemma: while the fall of Assad is seen as a victory for those advocating for democratic reform, the rise of a potentially unstable and radical government could lead to further regional instability. Western leaders must balance their support for Syrian opposition groups with concerns about the possible rise of extremist factions that could destabilise the region further.
The rebel victory, while historic, may not necessarily lead to lasting peace in Syria. While a transitional government including all factions within the nation may be formed, the rebels are no longer united by their original common cause: the elimination of Assad. With competing interests, the possibility of a new civil war remains high. In the worst case, Syria could descend into another prolonged conflict, further delaying any prospects for lasting peace. Achieving lasting peace will require reconciliation between these factions, international support, and a commitment to democratic reforms. Otherwise, Syria could face another prolonged period of instability.
Nour El-Kojok
Featured image courtesy of Shvan Harki via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
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