Nour El-Kojok
After 15 months of intense fighting, a fragile peace has been brokered in Gaza. On January 15th, Qatar’s Prime Minister confirmed that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement on a ceasefire and hostage deal, which would take effect on January 19th. This was confirmed by the Israeli cabinet on January 17th. This agreement followed the prolonged and difficult period of conflict in Gaza and aimed to bring temporary peace to the region. However, as the dust begins to settle, some key questions remain: What exactly are the terms of this ceasefire, and what are the potential consequences for the region in the coming months?
Historical Background
Various peace efforts have been tried and have failed, resulting in a cycle of violence and fragile ceasefires
The roots of the conflicts between Israel and Hamas date long before October 2023, and are cemented in territorial disputes, religious significance and historical grievances. Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, leading to frequent resulted in eruptions of violent confrontations which have left the region increasingly broken. Furthermore, the broader conflict between Israel and the State of Palestine has been ongoing since the mid-20th century, following the formation of the state of Israel in 1948. Various peace efforts have been tried and have failed, resulting in a cycle of violence and fragile ceasefires. Therefore, the recent ceasefire agreement has provided civilians hope that peace will be brought to the region.
The Three Phases of the Gaza Ceasefire
Netanyahu has shown that he plans to focus on “victory over Hamas” in these discussions.
The ceasefire agreement consists of three phases aimed at de-escalating the violence. The first phase involves the release of hostages and civilians, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from city centres, the coastal road, and the strip along the Egyptian border. This phase is to be completed within 45 days, though complexities in withdrawing troops from their positions could create delays. As of the time of writing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to negotiate the second phase of the ceasefire with Hamas. The second phase is likely to involve the release of the remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza City. Netanyahu has shown that he plans to focus on “victory over Hamas” in these discussions.
Potential US Involvement and Talks with Trump
United States could “take over” Gaza and that Israel would “hand over” the territory
In addition to internal negotiations, the international community, particularly the United States, has played a crucial role in the future of Gaza. Netanyahu has expressed his intent to engage with the new Trump administration to discuss the second phase of the ceasefire and explore the possibility of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. Recently, President Donald Trump caused controversy with a statement claiming that the United States could “take over” Gaza and that Israel would “hand over” the territory. This proposal has drawn condemnation from US allies, the United Nations, and much of the Middle East.
Palestinian citizens have rejected the idea, insisting that they will not leave their homeland. Trump’s
controversial comments about the US taking control of Gaza have raised alarms across the globe. Many see this proposal as undermining Palestinian sovereignty and the long-recognized two-state solution.
resettled in “safer and more beautiful communities” in neighbouring Arab-majority countries.
Trump’s claim further sparked controversy with his statement that if Palestinians were to leave Gaza, they would be resettled in “safer and more beautiful communities” in neighbouring Arab-majority countries. This plan raises concerns about the potential displacement of Palestinians from their homes, a move that would have lasting consequences for the region. However, Palestinian leaders and Arab states have rejected a resettlement plan as it would “violate international law,” with a statement on Thursday from the Egyptian government condemning any effort to remove Palestinians from Gaza.
The Aftermath of 15 Months of Conflict
The process of clearing this destruction is estimated to take up to 21 years.
The conflict over the last 15 months has left Gaza in ruins, with an estimated fifty million tonnes of debris and rubble. The destruction in Gaza is not just a matter of rubble—it represents the loss of countless lives, homes, and futures. With nearly 70% of buildings destroyed, the scars of war are deeply felt by families and communities that may never be rebuilt. Gaza’s infrastructure has been wrecked, hospitals are overwhelmed – with only 16 out of 36 hospitals remaining and are only partially functional – and schools have been shut for over 6 months.
“idyllic, America-owned ‘Riviera of the Middle East’” could emerge from the destruction.
The process of clearing this destruction is estimated to take up to 21 years. President Trump has suggested that, if Palestinians were to leave Gaza permanently, an “idyllic, America-owned ‘Riviera of the Middle East’” could emerge from the destruction. This statement has drawn further criticism and underscored the controversial nature of Trump’s proposal for Gaza’s future.
As the ceasefire agreement unfolds, the world watches closely to see how the situation will evolve in the coming months and whether lasting peace can be achieved for both Israelis and Palestinians.
What’s next?
The ceasefire has provided a temporary reprieve for civilians. Will the fragile peace hold, or will Gaza fall back into the same pattern of violence? The international community, including the US and regional powers, must play an active role in ensuring that peace holds. However, the real question is whether both sides—Israel and Hamas—are willing to make the compromises needed for long-term stability. As the world watches, the people of Gaza face a future that remains as uncertain as ever.
Nour El-Kojok
Featured image courtesy of CHUTTERSNAP via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
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