James Hadland
With the only consistent factor of Tottenham Hotspur over recent seasons being disappointment, there has been mixed reception towards the appointment of Ange ‘he is unproven in a top five league’ Postecoglou. However, after years of pragmatic, negative football only overshadowed by management of the same nature, is it time to be optimistic? Is it time to admit that short-term success is impossible with Daniel Levy unwilling to cough up the same budget as other cutthroat teams? Maybe this time we will witness the ‘painful rebuild’ that we were warned of three coaches, two interim Ryan Mason terms and one sacked-while-interim Cristian Stellini ago. James Hadland is here to show why we should look forward to the attractive football Postecoglou could return to the Lane, and the personnel required to make the game about glory once more.
Ever since my life as a serious Tottenham Hotspur supporter began in 2010/11, my dad fooling me into believing a team with Luka Modric, Rafael van der Vaart and Gareth Bale was just a sign of things to come, I cannot name a summer without rumours of managerial change or key players leaving. Even in the current Chelsea manager’s reign at Spurs (a name I can no longer bring myself to type for obvious reasons), featuring the most attractive, consistent and promising football the club has seen at least since the turn of the new millennium, criticism was never far from Tottenham Hostpur.
Constant scrutiny over trophy droughts, transfer policy and player-hostage situations has marred most summers for supporters of Tottenham, the acknowledged underdog of the big 6. Since those halcyon days, bookended with a sickening Champions League final decided by Moussa Sissoko’s armpit in the first minute, Daniel Levy had a complete change of plan, yet nothing has seemed to work.
All of the three last permanent coaches have provided a new manager bounce, and things have looked up at a certain point. However, this hope has always eventually diminished after some months, or in Nuno’s case, the length it took me to spell check the name Ange Postecoglou. Former Chelsea coach Mourinho was the dream appointment for Levy, ending in a sacking before a final to save money and a barrage of bitter interviews towards the club. I won’t deem the 2021 managerial hunt as anything less farcical than when Michael Scott quits as regional manager of Dunder Mifflin and even Creed gets a go.
The dearth of inspiration continued after interim spells under Stellini, who was sacked after a 6-1 defeat to Newcastle to epitomise Tottenham’s lost identity, and then Ryan Mason
To patch it up, Levy returned to Chelsea’s list of P45s and hired Antonio Conte, much to the delight of the fans. Indeed, he finally got us back into the top four and, after a seemingly excellent summer window, belief returned to the Lane. However, it derailed once again, at the season’s tipping point in March which saw the Lilywhites eliminated from the FA Cup and Champions League while slipping down the table – culminating in this final enraged outburst. The dearth of inspiration continued after interim spells under Stellini, who was sacked after a 6-1 defeat to Newcastle to epitomise Tottenham’s lost identity, and then Ryan Mason. Tottenham seemed to undergo another comedic managerial search between March and June, linked with a new manager every week and then the rumour being brutally shot down. However, Ange Postecoglou was appointed on June 6 and with a pre-season tour already on the way for the Lilywhites, this week marks the true start of the Australian’s tenure.
Ange Postecoglou’s treble-winning Celtic side featured a 4-3-3 formation out of possession, a system that he has adopted since managing Yokohama FC in 2018 – one of the clubs owned by City Group alongside Pep Guardiola’s own 4-3-3 style Manchester City. However, unlike the original 4-3-3 seen from Johan Cruyff’s total football, the formation switches in possession similarly to the Sky Blues. The problem for Tottenham is the fact that the past 2 seasons and transfer windows have been spent building a team for a 3-4-3 counter attacking style under Conte (shown below).
So why is Ange Postecoglou the man to guide Spurs back to the attractive football they have been reputed for? In his 4-3-3, he does not want to be pragmatic – he wants fast flowing, front foot play with pressure in more direct areas and football that will suit the beauty of the stadium Mr. Levy has constructed. Shown below is what happens once Ange’s side wins the ball, progressing from a high-pressure 4-3-3 shape into something that turns into a 3-3-4 or 2-3-5 formation when in the attacking third. At Celtic, his left back Greg Taylor inverted more than right back Alistair Johnston, who pushed wide and allowed right-winger Furuhashi to cut in.
So Tottenham fans can be excited by the idea they will get to finally watch some unique, structured and most importantly, positive football. However, there are various details to address for this to happen. In the 4-3-3, I will describe what Ange wants from each position, examine if Tottenham’s current roster can fulfil this need, and suggest players in the key areas when necessary.
Goalkeeper: Guglielmo Vicario, Hugo Lloris, Fraser Forster, Alfie Whiteman, Brandon Austin
However, what Postecoglou will want in his side is a possession goalkeeper, and it is for this reason crucially that the Italian has arrived to Hotspur Way
As of writing, Hugo Lloris is still at the club but a new starting replacement has already been bought for €20 million – Guglielmo Vicario. While the French and Tottenham captain has been lauded over the years for many counts of exceptional shot-stopping, his faults in ball-playing were ever present and by the end of last season, even his shot-stopping had worsened. Initially, Brentford’s David Raya was heavily linked to joining the club, with one year left on his contract, but Tottenham did not want to pay Brentford’s €40 million demand and therefore went for an alternative, statistically similar player.
Italian Vicario is also well regarded for his shot-stopping – overperforming his post-shot xG conceded by 2. However, what Postecoglou will want in his side is a possession goalkeeper, and it is for this reason crucially that the Italian has arrived to Hotspur Way. Although Empoli finished 14th in Serie A and 14th in possession ranking, Vicario was in the 91st percentile out of all top 5 league GKs for touches, compared to Lloris in 15th. As a backup, Fraser Forster is fine as a homegrown, well liked figure at the club. Could Tottenham shockingly be buying players that fit the correct profile?
Right back: Pedro Porro, Emerson Royal, Djed Spence
Perhaps one of the tougher transitions Tottenham fans will see is the change of wingbacks into full backs, which is not always easy due to the added defensive responsibility, as well as their new role as inverted, ball progressing midfielders – as shown in the in-possession formation above.
At right back, there is £39 million signing Pedro Porro, Instagram’s best influencer Emerson Royal and the totally forgotten Djed Spence. Djed Spence was signed as a wingback and then never played last season, so whether he has any future as an inverted right back is a doubt – possibly a loan is wise. As for Emerson, after a terrible time summarised by a no look pass out of play, comedic open goal misses and a red card in the North London Derby, he actually turned his form around in the second half of the season and shockingly became one of Tottenham’s most consistent players. Despite his profile best suited to playing as a right back in a four at the back, his technical skills are too inconsistent and retaining him as a backup for now might be the best plan.
That leaves Pedro Porro, whose horror debut against Leicester in a 4-1 defeat created serious doubts about his defensive skills. His attacking output is undeniable, in the 95th percentile for expected Assists and Goals compared to other top 5 league fullbacks, 98th for goal creating actions and 93rd for take-ons. Therefore, if he is coached to be less rash and to aid his centre back, he could be a serious player under the Australian’s reign. It is clear he is great on the ball and could be utilised superbly.
Left back: Ben Davies, Destiny Udogie, Sergio Reguilón, Ivan Perisic, Ryan Sessegnon
While Ben Davies is to some fans a symbol of the lack of change at the club, he is actually one of the most suited to an inverted, more defensive left back position
Left back is clearly an over saturated position at the club, and instantly it is fair to admit that not many suit from the mould comfortable to play as a left back in a Postecoglou side. For example, in Perisic and Sessegnon, you see very much wingbacks/wingers in their own right, so they are likely to depart. While Ben Davies is to some fans a symbol of the lack of change at the club, he is actually one of the most suited to an inverted, more defensive left back position, much like Greg Taylor for Celtic, employed here under Mourinho when Serge Aurier created an attacking overload on the other side.
As for Destiny Udogie, one of the most promising wingbacks in the world and a signing perfect for a Conte side, the new system may not suit his stronger attributes as a wide attacking wing back. Nonetheless, the club will want to keep hold of him and fortunately, at just 20 years of age youth is on his side, meaning Postecoglou may be able to mould such a strong talent to his desire. His recent feature against West Ham in a pre-season friendly has only served to emphasise how much potential and talent he has at his feet.
My verdict is that, similarly to Celtic’s fullbacks under Postecoglou, the left side stays back and is more conservative, allowing Porro less responsibility in defence and instead allowing him to do what he does best – join the attack. When he does advance wide on the right, Dejan Kulusevski will be able to move into the half space where he is at his most threatening – cutting in on his left side. Alternatively, Emerson could be used on the right side as the more defensive option and allow Udogie to attack more on the left flank.
Centre back: Eric Dier, Cristian Romero, Davinson Sanchez, Japhet Tanganga, Joe Rodon
World Cup winner Cristian Romero is the only player who has proven to be capable of the pace and passing skills required in a possession side with a high line
The positional issues in defence do not get much easier for Tottenham. While in former years the ever-reliable partnership of Belgian duo Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen made life easy for Lloris, Spurs’ current centre backs leave something to be desired. Out of the current five, World Cup winner Cristian Romero is the only player who has proven to be capable of the pace and passing skills required in a possession side with a high line.
Rodon struggled for game time at midtable Stade Rennais in France, Sanchez looks almost certain to move especially after fan abuse last season, and despite some initial promising flashes, Tanganga’s injury problems mean he hasn’t had any consistent run in the line-up. At the same time as many Spurs fans demand Eric Dier’s exit from the club, fed up of his consistent inclusion despite lacking pace and consistency, Spursplay just teased a documentary about him… Yes, really.
Therefore, I will focus on the two men linked with fixing this glaring problem to pair Romero: Micky Van de Ven (below) and Edmond Tapsoba – two of the Bundesliga’s most promising defenders. So why are they being targeted? As aforementioned, Postecoglou wants confidence in creating play from the back, pace if caught on the transition, and ball skills to hastily progress up field. Therefore, the metrics to look at when buying would include Progressive Carries, Pass Success rate and Speed. At Wolfsburg last season, Van de Ven clocked a top speed of 35.97km/h, was in the 90th percentile for Progressive Carries and had 87.7% pass completion rate.
As for the pricier option of the two, Tapsoba’s 33.68 km/h speed is nothing to judge – he is one of the fastest defenders in the world – instead showing how extraordinary Van de Ven’s speed is. His progressive carries are in the 95th percentile and has an 86.4% pass completion but offers something more than Van de Ven – progressive passing. Therefore, his lower pass completion is explained by the fact he takes risks – in the 95th percentile per 90 compared to Van de Ven ranking in the 56th percentile. Progressive passing means Tapsoba is a little braver and comfortable of moving the ball on into more attacking zones.
So which player do Tottenham sign to accompany the aggressive Cristian Romero as a partner with a cooler head? If the outgoings of the other defenders raise enough money, I would suggest both are signed, with Van de Ven also able to play in the left back role, where he played four times last season. It is clear Tottenham need defensive reinforcement and this pairing could fix their problem for years to come. Another thing to note is the availability of the two players, who appeared in 33 out of 34 league games for their respective sides last season.
Midfield: Yves Bissouma, Oliver Skipp, Pape Matar Sarr, Rodrigo Bentancur, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, Giovani Lo Celso, Tanguy Ndombélé, James Maddison
In midfield, the Australian’s fluid 4-3-3 formation includes a number six pivot with two box-to-box attacking eights in front of him, shown in the previous graphics as joining as an attacking front five when at full throttle. To begin with, I will then cover the role of the single pivot, which is crucial to protect the counter out of possession and recycle the ball when won back. Especially with two advanced eights in front, the six has to sit deep and tie all the play together to allow others to advance.
He has the destroying and recycling capabilities to progress Tottenham up the pitch while keeping the pressure on, and the £25 million paid could look like a steal if Ange can get him back to top form
The man touted as nailing his name on the team sheet as the pivot is Yves Bissouma who struggled to play in Conte’s midfield two, which seemed to be constantly overrun last season – 9th in possession rankings last year. However, in a more possession-focused Brighton side he was noted as one of the best players, in the 96th percentile for defensive actions leading to a goal, 99th for tackles + interceptions and even 81st for carrying distance (2021/2022). Therefore, it is clear he has the destroying and recycling capabilities to progress Tottenham up the pitch while keeping the pressure on, and the £25 million paid could look like a steal if Ange can get him back to top form.
Oliver Skipp is a Hotspur Academy graduate and has been a consistent feature for Tottenham, yet has uninspiring numbers for the same profile compared to the Mali international. However, as a much-needed home-grown player, he will likely be retained as an understudy, young enough to be moulded by the Australian and ready to learn. A lot of the same can be said for Pape Matar Sarr, who has a higher ceiling than Skipp especially shown in his dominating display against AC Milan at the San Siro in his first UCL start. If he is not promised game time, it is certain he needs minutes so a loan move would be beneficial.
Rodrigo Bentancur was excellent before his serious injury in February, hoping to return before Christmas. His profile when signed from Juventus was that of a six under Allegri, yet last season turned into a serious and genuine goal threat last season, in the 99th percentile for defensive actions leading to a goal but also ranking highly in take-ons, and non-penalty goals. Therefore, while his injury is damaging for the start of Tottenham’s season, his return will be like a new signing, able to play as one of the advanced eights and equally experienced as a pivot. As with all serious injuries, there is a risk of mobility issue, so there is certainly a need for summer recruitment.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is one of Tottenham’s biggest conundrums this summer. Praised by some as a leader and an ever-present (only missing two league games in his first two seasons), the Dane also receives criticism as not technically capable to dominate a midfield. Therefore, despite the improved attacking output of 5 goals and 7 assists last season, he doesn’t really suit the role desired in either position and has been linked with a move away. It may be a good time for the Lilywhites to cash in on what may be a sensible transfer all around, with Hojbjerg clearly good enough for a top side but potentially unsuitable the rebuild at the Lane.
Giovani Lo Celso and Tanguy Ndombele were signed in the same 2019 window after a promise of a push on after the Champions League final, and it is fair to say neither of them have worked out ideally. The former showed true glimpses of form in Mourinho’s first season, but injury issues and unsettlement in London suggest a summer move is on the cards. However, this season’s tactics could be most suited to Lo Celso, whose best form has been found in a midfield three as an 8, especially on the attack. His own 45 minute cameo against West Ham in the recent friendly showed just how well he fits the system, if he is willing to give it another try in North London, having spent more time away on loan than at the club.
As for Ndombele, the talent is clear to see, but consistency and attitude appears to be something that has largely in and out of the Spurs side, sent on two loans in the last two seasons. Once more, with attacking-minded Postecoglou replacing pragmatic ‘no pain no gain’ managers like Mourinho and Conte, a fresh start is available for both of them at the club. It is hard for Tottenham fans to witness such gifted players never find their feet in a Lilywhite shirt, but their inclusion on the plane to Australia does indicate the new manager’s openness to all his squad members getting a chance.
James Maddison’s arrival at Hotspur Way not only fills the creative void left by Christian Eriksen’s exit in 2020, but also indicates a clear backing of the manager as a £40 million star signing clearly wanted for the attacking 8 role. Despite Leicester City’s relegation, Maddison still racked up 10 goals and 9 assists in the league – numbers only fewer than Kevin De Bruyne and Martin Ødegaard in similar positions. His attacking threat he will bring to Tottenham is evidenced by the fact that he ranked 4th for shot-crating actions per 90, 6th for expected Assists and 10th for Key Passes despite playing for a team battling and eventually suffering relegation.
If Tottenham do therefore end up selling those linked with a move away, with Hojbjerg or Lo Celso seeming most likely, then there is certainly a need to reinforce the number 8 position. One player linked to arrive is Chelsea’s England international Conor Gallagher. There is certainly a reluctance among Tottenham fans to sign, after a considerably poor season last season, yet the evidence is apparent for why he is reportedly desired by Postecoglou.
Even in the 2022/2023 season with three managers and inconsistent game time at Chelsea, he shone compared to players in his position in the Premier League. Providing something different to other Spurs midfielders, he excelled in Progressive Carries and Passes received, showing himself as a front foot player. What may be most attractive to the Australian is Gallagher’s relentless work rate, in the 97th percentile for tackles in the attacking third and 90th for carries into the final third. That is to say, if the new coach can get his hands on the 23 year old, his role as an attacking eight could see him back in the rich vein of form he had while on loan at Crystal Palace.
Forwards: Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, Dejan Kulusevski, Richarlison, Bryan Gil, Manor Solomon
The new transfer saga of the summer surrounds Harry Kane, linked with moves away to Bayern or PSG. In particular, the Bavarian club seem rather vocal about their desire for Kane, which will no doubt drive the asking price up for Daniel Levy. England captain Kane needs no demonstration of his talents – the fact he scored 30 league goals in a team that finished eighth says enough. Although his desire to leave can be understood, it may be unfortunate timing, with the club moving into a footballing direction that would suit him far more than the recent season’s conservatism. Every Spurs fan will want him to stay and help the team as they begin to rebuild.
Heung-Min Son’s poorer season last year may be explained by Perisic’s arrival at the club, with the wingback occupying many of the same spaces that Son is known to do. After Conte left as manager, the Korean went to score four goals – nearly as many as the first 8 months of the season. Postecoglou’s demands for a winger who can cut in and interplay seem suitable for Son, who may even have a chance in the fluid attack at striker if Kane were to leave. He is a leading figure at the club and certainly someone capable of rediscovering his form that saw him win the golden boot two seasons ago.
An excellent World Cup display as Brazil’s number 9 suggests that he may be the Kane replacement, but the worry is giving this responsibility to a player with one league goal for the club
A poor season was in fact shared by all Tottenham attackers bar Kane, with Kulusevski and Richarlison failing to live up to the expectation they had set. The Swede’s first 6 months at Tottenham were crucial to Spurs’ Champions League qualification, but injuries and inconsistency in the side led to a drop off from 13 goals and assists in 18 matches compared to 9 in 30 this season. However, the right-winger’s potential is clear.
Richarlison’s £60 million move from Everton once again disappointed last season, only scoring one goal in a game against Liverpool I hasten to bring up. However, as with Kulusevski, many injury struggles and a lack of consistent game time ensured his season was not going to get going regardless. He was often played in a wide attacking role on the right that didn’t suit his aggressive, off the ball play and was being asked to create on the ball. After an excellent World Cup display as Brazil’s number 9 suggests that he may be the Kane replacement, but the worry is giving this responsibility to a player with one league goal for the club.
While Bryan Gil showed glimpses before his loan to Europa League winning Sevilla, reported unsettlement suggests he wants a return to Spain. Further dampening the Spaniard’s chances of game time is new signing Manor Solomon. While some perceive his transfer as uninspiring, a player that rarely broke into the starting Fulham XI while on loan last season, it has been reported that Postecoglou has been monitoring for years. The manager’s setup requires excellent take-on skills in his wingers who face isolated fullbacks due to the rest of the team’s movement, so Solomon’s ranking in the 94th percentile for this explains the move.
In terms of forwards, the majority of change will be influenced by whether Harry Kane leaves or not. It is an almost impossible task to replace the chief creative and attacking output in a team, and while Maddison takes the creative pressure off any replacement, the next striker’s ideal profile would excel at both making chances and putting them away. Randal Kolo-Muani, famed for his nearly goal against Argentina in the World Cup final, has been linked with a move if the England skipper were to leave. But why is the Eintracht Frankfurt forward actually suited to the Kane-sized hole?
Comparing the two players’ underlying stats begins to make sense of the transfer links. For example, the French player has had an expected goals and assists per 90 of 0.67 in the past year, only 0.08 less than a far more developed Kane. Furthermore, the Frenchman’s 41 meet Kane’s 57 key passes, but the context must be known that Kane is the true focal point of the Spurs side and the man who always receives the ball. While progressive passing is less suited to Kolo-Muani, he in fact beats Kane on the shot creating actions per 90, suggesting an efficiency in key areas to create a chance. A fluid and versatile player, Kolo-Muani would command a high fee but may be a starting point for a rebuild if the club legend finally decides to move towards new horizons.
Verdict:
While at the time of writing the transfer window is far from closed, Tottenham Hotspur have certainly made some progress in recruiting for Ange Postecoglou’s system. The next port of call is defence, and ensuring the team have the ball-playing and recovery skills needed to play a higher line. As for the Harry Kane saga, it is not an unfamiliar feeling for Spurs fans who have witnessed this farce before, but there is a stronger indication this summer that he may leave with only one year left on his contract. If so, even more money and time must be given to the Australian if he is the man to lead the rebuild in a more positive direction. Overall, however, there are certainly reasons to look forward to football at the Lane next season, but the age-old fear remains that the manager won’t be fully financially backed by Levy.
James Hadland
Featured image courtesy of Omri Yanin via Unsplash. Image use license found here. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of BPI/REX (10265937fw) via Flickr. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 2 courtesy of @spursofficial via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 3 courtesy of James Hadland via tactical-board.com. No changes were made to this image
In article image 4 courtesy of James Hadland via tactical-board.com. No changes were made to this image
In article image 5 courtesy of James Hadland via tactical-board.com. No changes were made to this image
In article image 6 courtesy of @spursofficial via Instagram. No changes were made to this image
In article image 7 courtesy of @vfl.wolfsburg via Instagram. No changes were made to this image
In article image 8 courtesy of @spursofficial via Instagram. No changes were made to this image
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