Tom Henigan
There are now just two weeks left in the NFL regular season. Week 16 saw several teams officially eliminated from playoff contention, while other teams kept their slim hopes for the postseason alive.
The first game of the week was a big one. The Los Angeles Chargers hosted the Denver Broncos in a game where a win would have secured a playoff spot for the Broncos. It looked as if that was going to be the case as Denver raced into a 21-10 lead and then intercepted Justin Herbert at the goal line with under a minute left in the first half. But then the momentum took a swing in favour of the hosts as the Broncos went three and out, leading to a punt after Jim Harbaugh smartly called a timeout with eight seconds left in the half.
The last successful free-kick field goal in the NFL came on November 21st, 1976
That timeout led to one of the rarest plays in the NFL as on the punt, Tremon Smith of the Broncos illegally interfered with Derius Davis’ fair catch attempt at LA’s 38-yard line, with no time left on the clock. The penalty by Smith set up a 57-yard free kick field goal for Cameron Dicker to attempt. Given that no block attempt was allowed on this kick, and that Dicker could have as long a run-up as he wanted, the Chargers kicker sent the ball through the posts with relative ease, making the score 21-13 at halftime. To give an idea of how rare this play is, the last successful free-kick field goal in the NFL came on November 21st, 1976, when Ray Wersching knocked through a 45-yard attempt for the San Diego Chargers against the Buffalo Bills.
The second half was a disaster for the Broncos as the Chargers scored three touchdowns to complete the comeback, winning 34-27. The throw of the night came early in the 4th quarter when Herbert rolled to his left and found Derius Davis down the sideline for a 19-yard touchdown to take a 25-24 lead which was followed by a successful two-point attempt. After that, the Chargers never lost their lead, and a 90-yard touchdown drive later in the fourth quarter helped put the game to bed.
This was one of the biggest wins of Herbert’s career and while that might sound like hyperbole, the Chargers quarterback is now in his fifth year and is yet to win a playoff game. He has immense talent but has not won many big games. Here Herbert showed to the NFL world that he could make a comeback in a big game with massive playoff implications and now, if the 9-6 Chargers beat the 3-12 New England Patriots in week 17, Herbert will be playing in the postseason.
For the Broncos, this loss sets up a nervy end to the season as, like the Chargers, they now sit at 9-6, but with a much tougher schedule ahead. Denver is still in control of their own destiny but there is a world, and a realistic one at that, where they miss the playoffs.
The NFL has two games on Christmas Day this season, so the four teams playing on Wednesday December 25th, played on Saturday in week 16. The day started with the Houston Texans facing the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs came away with the win at home by a score of 27-19. The reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions are now 14-1 and one victory away from the number one seed. Meanwhile, the Texans dropped to 9-6 but the worst part of their day was the unfortunate injury to wide receiver Tank Dell, who suffered a torn ACL on a touchdown catch, leaving him out for the rest of the season. The Texans have already won their division and are now only battling for the number three seed instead of being the fourth ranked AFC team heading into the playoffs.
If Pittsburgh wins out, they will win the AFC North
The later game on Saturday was between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. A win for the Steelers would have won them the AFC North but the Ravens made sure that didn’t happen. Two costly Russell Wilson turnovers, including a pick-six, helped the Ravens to a 34-17 win against their bitter rivals. But, with two games left, the division is still in the hands of the Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins out, they will win the AFC North, but they face the Chiefs on Christmas Day and a loss there would give the Ravens the advantage, as they face the Houston Texans right after Pittsburgh’s matchup.
Sunday saw plenty of drama in the NFL. In one of the less meaningful games, the Las Vegas Raiders beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 19-14, meaning both teams are now 3-12.
Multiple division races saw big twists as the Atlanta Falcons defeated the New York Giants 34-7 to move to an 8-7 record. Then, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost 26-24 against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, Atlanta retook the top spot in the NFC South heading into week 17.
In the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals are now officially eliminated from playoff contention as the Carolina Panthers got their fourth win of the season in a 36-30 overtime victory. Along with that, the San Francisco 49ers are now mathematically eliminated from postseason contention after their 29-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
That leaves the race for the NFC West between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. The Seahawks suffered a tough loss as a late Justin Jefferson touchdown helped give the Minnesota Vikings a 27-24 win in Seattle. Geno Smith threw an interception on the subsequent drive which ended the game. Unlike their three division rivals, the Rams were victorious in week 16, beating the now 4-11 New York Jets, 19-9. The win for the Rams means that if the Seahawks lose to the Bears in week 17, and the Rams beat the Cardinals, Los Angeles will win the NFC West for the first time since 2021, the season they won the Super Bowl.
Looking at the rest of the NFC, the race for the number one seed took a big swing as the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Washington Commanders 36-33. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts left the game with a concussion in the first quarter, meaning Kenny Pickett was under centre for the visitors for the rest of the game. Philadelphia’s defense had five takeaways, but it wasn’t enough for the win. Jayden Daniels may have thrown two interceptions, but he was sensational, throwing for five touchdowns, including the game-winning score with six seconds left to Jamison Crowder. That throw came at the end of a drive that probably wouldn’t have happened had Devonta Smith made a routine 3rd and 5 catch on Philadelphia’s previous drive, which would have all but secured the win for the Eagles. The loss for Philadelphia now means that they likely won’t be the number one seed in the NFC.
Washington’s win means the Dallas Cowboys are officially eliminated from the playoffs despite their win against the Buccaneers which moved them to 7-8. The Commanders are still technically within reach of the NFC East title, but in order for Washington to win the division, they would need to win out and the Eagles would need to lose their final two games.
A team with a 14-3 record could be the fifth seed in the NFC this season
The top three teams in the NFC North continue to dominate the rest of the league as the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers, all won. The Lions, who beat the 4-11 Chicago Bears, are now 13-2, along with the Vikings, with Detroit leading the NFC North due to them beating the Vikings earlier this year. The Packers became the first team this season to force a shutout, as their 34-0 win against the 5-10 New Orleans Saints, moved them to 11-4. Despite their impressive record, Green Bay still sits third in their division. If the Vikings defeat the Lions in week 17, and the Lions beat the 49ers, week 18 will see the Minnesota travel to Detroit in a game where the winner will be the number one seed, and the loser will be the number five seed. A team with a 14-3 record could be the fifth seed in the NFC this season.
Moving over to the AFC, Miami’s win against the 49ers kept their slim playoff hopes alive. The same can be said for the Indianapolis Colts, who beat the 3-12 Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins and Colts are now both 7-8 and will both need to win out to have any chance at making the playoffs. The other team that still has hope is the Cincinnati Bengals, who beat the 3-12 Cleveland Browns, 24-6. Joe Burrow continues to have a sensational season, but he will need to lead his team to victory in his last two games, and get lots of help, if he wants to be in the playoffs this year. The Bengals play the Broncos in week 17 and if Cincinnati wins, they will have a chance in week 18. If Denver wins that game, and the Chargers beat the Patriots, then the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals, will all be eliminated.
If the Chiefs beat the Steelers on Christmas Day, the AFC will go through Kansas City
The race for the number one seed in the AFC is still on with two weeks to go but the Chiefs took a major step towards securing the first-round bye with their win against Houston. The Buffalo Bills beat the Patriots 24-21 but trailed 14-7 at halftime in what would have been the biggest upset of the season if New England had held on. The win for Buffalo kept their hopes for the AFC’s first seed alive but if the Chiefs beat the Steelers on Christmas Day, the AFC will go through Kansas City, no matter what the Bills do.
Josh Allen’s somewhat lacklustre performance against the Patriots kept the MVP race alive as Lamar Jackson had thrown three touchdowns against the Steelers the day before. If Jackson performs just as well on Christmas, and Allen struggles against the Jets, the Ravens quarterback could be looking at a third career MVP award.
With two weeks to go in the 2024 NFL regular season, there is still so much to be decided before the playoffs. Five divisions are still up for grabs, including all four in the NFC. Both number one seeds are still to be decided and the wildcard race in the AFC is well and truly alive with the Bengals against the Broncos in week 17 possibly deciding the fate of four teams.
Tom Henigan
Featured image courtesy of Paolo Aldrighetti via Unsplash. Image use license found here (Unsplash). No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @espn via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 2 courtesy of @nflonfox via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
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