Tom Henigan
Arguably the best weekend of the NFL season, the divisional round of the playoffs, is here. Four games involving the eight best teams, this round has provided fans with plenty of games over the years. There are some heavy favourites this weekend, but an underdog story is always on the cards and there is one matchup that stands out as the game of the season so far.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday January 18th 9:30pm UK time
The Texans were picked by many to lose against the Los Angeles Chargers in the wildcard round but Houston’s defence was dominant in a 32-12 win. That defence is going to need to do more of the same in this matchup. Houston was top five in sacks and takeaways in the regular season and continued that form against the Chargers with four sacks and four interceptions. They are now going up against a Kansas City team that did not turn it over much in the regular season, just 14 times. But last week they were facing a Chargers team that had only given the ball away nine times in the regular season.
The biggest issue for Kansas City is their left tackle
Houston’s defence certainly has the potential to cause problems in this matchup. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter coming off of the edge is where they are most likely to make something happen. The biggest issue for Kansas City is their left tackle and, at the time of writing, it is unknown who will start at that position in this game, but it will be either D.J. Humphries or first team All-Pro left guard, Joe Thuney. Anderson Jr. and Hunter will likely rotate between the left and right side to try and get Kansas City’s left tackle, whether it be Humphries or Thuney, out of rhythm.
These two teams met in week 16 and the Chiefs kept Houston’s defensive line at bay with Mahomes only taking one sack. I expect the Chiefs to stick to their quick, short passing game, not allowing much time for Anderson Jr. or Hunter to get to the quarterback. Mahomes will have to be on form in that quick passing game as Houston’s cornerbacks have been great this season. First team All-Pro, Derek Stingley Jr., is the standout name but rookie cornerback, Kamari Lassiter, has also had a great year and had an interception in the wildcard round.
Like they have done all season, the Chiefs will look to methodically march down the field with runs, short passes and screens, although there might be one or two deep shots to Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy in the mix.
As for the Texans offence, I think that they might struggle in this game. While C.J. Stroud did have the game-changing 3rd and 16 pass in the wildcard round, his overall performance did not show enough signs to me that he has regained his rookie form. In the second half of Houston’s wildcard game, Joe Mixon was the key man for the offence, but he may struggle against a Kansas City defence that ranks top 10 against the run. Given Houston’s injuries at wide receiver this season, and their offensive line which has struggled at protecting Stroud, I can’t see the Texans stringing together a big offensive performance against Kansas City’s strong defence, which gave up the fourth fewest points in the regular season.
Houston’s offensive line will put most of their attention on Chris Jones so I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like George Karlaftis have a big day from the outside of the defensive line.
If Houston is going to win this game, they will do it because of their playmakers on defence such as Stingley Jr. and Anderson Jr. Given that in the divisional round, Patrick Mahomes has 16 total touchdowns, zero turnovers, and a passer rating of 115.8, I struggle to see the Texans defence making enough plays to get the win.
Prediction: Texans 13-24 Chiefs
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions – Sunday January 19th 1am UK time
The Washington Commanders can only win this game with a Jayden Daniels masterclass. While I am not denying the possibility of that, this is not a game that the Commanders will win through their defence making play after play. Washington ranked 20th in takeaways in the regular season and had just the one in the wildcard round thanks to a mishap from Baker Mayfield.
Having said that, if Daniels is on form and keeps his offence moving down the field, then one or two takeaways could be enough for the Commanders to sneak a victory in a game where they are massive underdogs.
The Lions have not been good at defending running quarterbacks this season
Daniels was brilliant in Washington’s wildcard win and I could see him having another big performance here. Although Detroit’s defence was great against the Vikings a few weeks ago, the injuries have clearly had a negative effect overall. Aaron Glenn, the Lions’ defensive coordinator, will try to keep Daniels from running as much as possible because that is where the rookie quarterback kills defences.
The Lions blitz the most out of any team left in the playoffs but if they get it wrong here, Daniels, who scrambles more than any other quarterback, will make plays. The Lions have not been good at defending running quarterbacks this season, ranking 29th in rush yards and 31st in yards per rush, against quarterbacks. Daniels will have opportunities to make plays with his legs and that could be Washington’s way of staying in this game and possibly causing an upset. Detroit likes to play man coverage on defence but that could be their downfall in this game as it might allow Daniels to make those big runs.
In the passing game, the Lions have to have a plan for Terry McLaurin, who has been Daniels’ number one target this year.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions need to keep it simple, and they will have success. Washington ranked 30th in rushing defence in the regular season while the Lions ranked sixth in rushing offence. Jahmyr Gibbs was tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns and was fourth in rushing yards in the regular season.
Gibbs’ fellow running back, David Montgomery, will be returning after he suffered what initially seemed like a season-ending knee injury in week 15. If the Lions run the ball consistently, it is hard to see Washington stopping them. Once Detroit’s run game gets going, Jared Goff is at his best with play action passes to first team All-Pro, Amon-Ra St. Brown, as well as speedster Jameson Williams.
While the defensive unit of the Lions still concerns me, I think their offence is too strong for Daniels and the Commanders to keep pace with.
Prediction: Commanders 20-31 Lions
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday January 19th 8pm UK time
The Eagles come into this game as favourites but, outside of Saquon Barkley, their offence was somewhat disappointing against the Packers in the last round.
Coming into this matchup, everyone has been emphasising that when these two teams met in week 12, Barkley ran for 255 yards, a career high, and the Eagles had 314 rushing yards as a team.
Since that game, though, the Rams are 6-1, with the one loss coming in week 18 when they were resting their starters. Along with that, since the week 12 game, the Rams have given up just 104.1 rushing yards per game which would rank tenth in the league over the regular season. This young defensive front, led by Jared Verse and Kobie Turner, will be looking to redeem themselves after Barkley ran all over them in late November. L.A. will also need to account for Jalen Hurts as he was a big factor in the Eagles having the second-best rushing attack in the league this year.
If the Rams can shut down the run game and force Jalen Hurts to pass, I can see L.A.’s defence having success, but it won’t be easy getting to Hurts given Philadelphia’s elite offensive line. The Rams did have nine sacks in the wildcard round but this week they are going up against maybe the best offensive line in the league, so will have to be creative with when they send pressure, to try and create confusion.
Zack Baun was arguably the best linebacker in the league this season
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles had the best passing defence in the NFL in the regular season. Their secondary has played well with the likes of Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay Jr., and Cooper DeJean all having great seasons. But the front seven is where the Eagles shine on defence. Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter are two of the best defensive lineman in the league and will wreck the game if given the chance. Zack Baun was arguably the best linebacker in the league this season and his coverage in the pass game is a big part of why the Eagles are so good at defending the aerial attack. Philadelphia will be without linebacker Nakobe Dean which is a big miss. Matthew Stafford will look to target Dean’s replacement, Oren Burks, in the passing game, and Sean McVay will use a lot of motion to try and create some mismatches.
On paper, the Eagles are the better team, but I think that Stafford and McVay will continue with their playoff success together. They are 5-1 in the postseason with one another and in those games, Stafford has thrown 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, with a passer rating of 116.75. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will have to be at their very best against a great secondary, but with the better coach and better quarterback in my opinion, I think the Rams will win a close game.
Prediction: Rams 27-24 Eagles
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills – Sunday January 19th – 11:30pm UK time
This is, without a doubt, the game of the year so far. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have been the two best quarterbacks this season and one of these two will win the MVP award.
This game is a chance for Jackson to shut down a lot of silly narratives about his playoff play, narratives which still exist despite the fact that he dominated the Steelers in the first round. But Jackson might not be the main focus of Buffalo’s defence. Running back Derrick Henry will be the man the Bills look to shut down. Henry had 1,921 rushing yards this season, ranking second in the league. When these two teams met in week 4, Henry had 199 yards on the ground in a 35-10 Baltimore win. The Bills rank in the top half of the league against the run but like to play a ‘lighter’ defence with five defensive backs. If they do that against the Ravens, they will struggle massively as Baltimore likes to have Mark Andrews, Isiah Likely, and Patrick Ricard all blocking for Henry. If the Bills don’t put in that extra linebacker when the Ravens are in heavy personnel, Henry will have a big day.
In the wildcard round, the Ravens leaned into the run-pass option game with Jackson and Henry. I expect them to keep that up here as they will look to cause confusion in Buffalo’s linebacker core.
The reason Buffalo plays with five defensive backs so often is because Taron Johnson, their nickel cornerback, is the best player in their secondary. If the Ravens are forced to pass, Johnson is the man Bills fans will look towards to make plays. With wide receiver Zay Flowers potentially missing this game for Baltimore, the Bills will likely play a lot of man coverage but will then of course have to make sure that they keep Jackson contained in the pocket. With Flowers possibly out, Rashod Bateman will be the key wide receiver for the Ravens, but tight ends Andrews and Likely will also be important targets for Jackson.
Buffalo’s defence was outmatched the last time these two teams met, but a lot of things have changed since then. In that week 4 matchup, the Bills were missing Johnson as well as linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.
Buffalo can’t allow the Ravens to take an early lead
The best way for the Bills to play defence against Derrick Henry is to play efficient offence. Buffalo can’t allow the Ravens to take an early lead because that will allow the visitors to keep giving the ball to Henry. Josh Allen will have to keep his offence on the field for as long as possible on scoring drives to ensure that the Ravens are playing from behind, meaning that they won’t be able to give the ball to Henry as much as they want. That won’t be easy though as the Ravens were the best team in the league at defending the run in the regular season, with the ground game being an important factor in how efficient the Bills are on offence.
Although the Ravens ranked 31st against the pass this season, their passing defence has been amongst the best in the league since Kyle Hamilton moved back to his more familiar position of free safety in week 10. The Bills won’t be afraid to give Allen lots of designed quarterback runs but, if they want to play efficiently, Buffalo’s offence needs to stick with its philosophy of getting all of their pass catchers involved.
The Bills are at home but that does bring one disadvantage because Derrick Henry is very difficult to stop in cold weather. Combine his running with Jackson’s overall game and I think Buffalo’s defence will struggle, although this game will be much closer than the last matchup between these two teams. I expect both Allen and Jackson to play well but Henry will be the difference in a game of fine margins. This matchup has the potential to be an all-time classic and I think that it will live up to the hype.
Prediction: Ravens 31-28 Bills
Tom Henigan
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