Tom Henigan
The NFL playoffs are finally here. After eighteen weeks of the regular season, the postseason is upon us. Unlike any of the other major North American sport leagues, the NFL playoffs is one and done. If you lose, you’re going home, no second chances. There are two playoff teams not participating in the wildcard round because they have first-round byes after earning the number one seed in their respective conferences. From the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs, who are reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions, have earned the week off. From the NFC, the Detroit Lions, who were in the NFC championship game last season, will start their postseason at home in the divisional round.
There are six games this week and while there are some heavy favourites, the possibility of a few upsets is not out of the question.
Los Angeles Chargers (AFC no. 5) @ Houston Texans (AFC no, 4) – Saturday January 11th, 21:30 UK time
I do not expect a high-scoring game here. C.J. Stroud has not reached the high levels of his rookie season, and his offensive line has struggled all season. Nico Collins seems to be his only strong weapon at wide receiver and the Chargers have a strong secondary. L.A. also has a good enough pass rush to cause problems to this sub-par offensive line sending an extra rusher. I think to succeed on offense, Houston will have to establish Joe Mixon as a threat early on because if it becomes one dimensional, the offensive line will struggle.
The Chargers are weak on the interior of their offensive line
The Texans also have a strong defensive group, ranking fifth in the league in sacks and in takeaways. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are Houston’s main pass rush threats but given that they are up against two great tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, the Texans will look to interior defensive lineman such as Tim Settle to make plays. The Chargers are weak on the interior of their offensive line and Houston has to exploit that, possibly by occasionally moving Hunter or Anderson inside.
In the secondary, Houston will look to cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. to make plays. The Chargers do not have a strong receiving core outside of rookie Ladd McConkey so, even though Houston plays a lot of zone coverage, they should look to get Stingley on the side of McConkey as much as possible.
L.A. will look to play their game of strong defense, taking care of the ball, and letting Justin Herbert make the big plays when he needs to.
I struggle to see Houston finding their form on offence given the injuries and how strong the Chargers are defensively. I think that the Texans will cause a few problems for the Chargers offence but ultimately, Herbert will be able to make the important throws when he needs to. Receiver Quentin Johnston had a big game to end the regular season and, with the focus on McConkey, I think he could be a key player in this game.
Prediction: Chargers 20-10 Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC no. 6) @ Baltimore Ravens (AFC no. 3) – Sunday January 12th 1am UK time
The Ravens started the season with struggles on their defence but in recent weeks have seen serious improvements. Baltimore has given up just 10.75 points per game in the last four weeks of the season after their bye in week 14. The Steelers offence has suffered the opposite fate, scoring just 14.25 points per game during their four-game losing streak. While Russell Wilson’s number one target, George Pickens, did miss two of those games, Pittsburgh’s attack is suffering from a real lack of creativity.
Given that the Ravens have the best rushing defence in the league, the Steelers will need Wilson, Pickens, and other offensive weapons in the passing game to step up.
If the Steelers are going to win this game, it will have to be similar to the way they beat the Ravens earlier this season. Pittsburgh will not win this game in a shootout given their lack of explosiveness on offence but might be able to limit Baltimore’s attack. Lamar Jackson had 45 total touchdowns in the regular season and just four interceptions but his career numbers against the Steelers are sub-par.
Wide receiver Zay Flowers, Jackson’s number one target, is out for this game
Jackson has a 2-4 record against Pittsburgh, throwing eight touchdowns and nine interceptions in those games. Even in the 34-17 win, where Jackson was sensational, he threw a red zone interception which could have got the Steelers back in the game. If the Ravens try and win the game with Jackson purely throwing the ball, it could give them some problems. The Ravens can of course win by relying on Jackson, but no team had more takeaways than Pittsburgh this year, and their 17 interceptions in the regular season ranks third. Along with this, wide receiver Zay Flowers, who is Jackson’s number one target, is out for this game.
If the Ravens want to avoid risk against this Pittsburgh team, they need to run the ball consistently with Derrick Henry like they did in their win and did not do in their loss. Baltimore is 8-0 in games where Henry gets at least 20 carries and if they feed him in this game, it is hard to see Pittsburgh dealing with it.
Prediction: Steelers 17-23 Ravens
Denver Broncos (AFC no. 7) @ Buffalo Bills (AFC no. 2) – Sunday January 12th 18:00 UK time
The Broncos face a tall task as they travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team that has beaten both the Lions and the Chiefs this season, and has Josh Allen, possibly the MVP, at quarterback.
The Bills have the second-best scoring offence in the NFL while the Broncos have the third best scoring defence, Patrick Surtain II a top candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
If the Broncos consistently let Josh Allen get out of the pocket and use his legs, then it will be a long afternoon for Denver
The Broncos sacked opposing quarterbacks more than any other team in the NFL this season, with Nik Bonitto leading the team with 13.5. Bonitto and the rest of the pass rush will be going up against a strong offensive line. Given the fact that Josh Allen was only sacked fourteen times this season, Denver may not want to put of their focus on sacks but think more about containing Josh Allen. If the Broncos consistently let Josh Allen get out of the pocket and use his legs, then it will be a long afternoon for Denver. The interior defensive line on the Broncos 3-4 defense will need to collapse the pocket, possibly with some stunt rushes, in order to keep Allen under wraps.
On the flipside of the ball, Bo Nix has had a great rookie season, also behind a great offensive line. The Bills have struggled getting to the quarterback this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in sacks. While Buffalo is top ten in pressure percentage, Bo Nix was pressured the fourth least out of any quarterback this season and had more time to throw than most quarterbacks in the NFL. That could allow for Courtland Sutton, Denver’s top receiver, to break loose against a Buffalo secondary that could be vulnerable in this game.
Buffalo is strongest in their turnover differential, giving the ball away just eight times this season, and taking it away 32 times. Combine that with the fact that they have the far better quarterback, and it is tough to see Denver winning this one, although the defence is strong enough to keep it close for the majority of the game.
Prediction: Broncos 17-31 Bills
Green Bay Packers (NFC no. 7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (NFC no. 2) – Sunday January 12th 21:30 UK time
The Green Bay Packers suffered an awful injury in week 18 when wide receiver Christian Watson tore his ACL. A devastating injury for Watson that leaves the Packers without their best deep threat against an Eagles team that gives up the least amount of passing yards per game. Without Watson, Green Bay will have to look to Josh Jacobs to make something happen in the rushing attack, which he certainly can do. That would open up the play action and allow Green Bay to get some sort of passing attack going to other receivers such as Jayden Reed, who caught a 70-yard touchdown from Jordan Love against the Eagles in the week 1 game between these two teams, where Philadelphia came away victorious.
The Eagles have the second-best rushing attack in the league this season, with Saquon Barkley hitting over 2,000 yards on the ground, along with quarterback Jalen Hurts providing a big threat. The Packers have been good against the run this year, allowing less than 100 yards per game and will need to continue that form if they want to slow down the Eagles. Philadelphia has the fourth-lowest ranked passing attack by yards but still has great weapons in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Without Jaire Alexander in their secondary, Green Bay might struggle to slow down Brown and Smith.
Only three teams have more takeaways than Green Bay this season and Xavier McKinney, who has eight interceptions this season, will likely have to make some more big plays if the Packers are going to win this game.
The Eagles have a lot of strong weapons on offence, and their defence has been great all year. Going up against a Packers team who just lost one of their biggest weapons, it is hard to pick against the Eagles.
Prediction: Packers 21-30 Eagles
Washington Commanders (NFC no. 6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC no. 3)
Possibly the most intriguing wildcard round matchup. Not many would have expected the Commanders to make the playoffs, but rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a sensation this season. For Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield has exceeded expectations with his performances.
These two teams met in week one in Tampa Bay where the Buccaneers won 37-20.
If Tampa Bay wants to slow down the Washington offence, they need to prioritise stopping Daniels using his legs
Daniels is the leading rusher on his team which ranks third in the NFL on the ground. If Tampa Bay wants to slow down the Washington offence, they need to prioritise stopping Daniels using his legs to extend plays. Tampa Bay does have one of the top-ranking rushing defences in the league but will also need to consider wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who has been Daniels’ favourite target this season.
The Buccaneers like to blitz but will need to get it right as Daniels scrambles more than any other quarterback, averaging over eight yards each time he does so.
Tampa Bay have scored just under thirty points per game this season, giving them the fourth best offence in the NFL. Mayfield has thrown forty-one touchdowns this season but also has sixteen interceptions. The Commanders have sixteen turnovers as a team so if Mayfield is too reckless, he could lose his team the turnover battle and the game. Like Tampa Bay, Washington blitzes over thirty per cent of the time, so if the visitors continue that trend, quick passes could be the recipe for success for Tampa Bay. That may suit them as Mayfield ranks 31st out of 39 quarterbacks this season in intended air yards per attempt.
This game has the potential to be a classic between two teams that aren’t necessary anyone’s favourites to make the Super Bowl but could cause problems to anyone on any given day. I think that Tampa Bay has the slightly better defence and given Mayfield’s playoff experience, he will lead his team to a win.
Prediction: Commanders 28-34 Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings (NFC no. 5) @ Los Angeles Rams (NFC no. 4) – Tuesday January 14th, 1am UK time
The Vikings finished 14-3 this season but will still be on the road to the 10-7 Rams due to the Lions finishing 15-2 in the same division as Minnesota.
A big storyline coming into this game is how Sam Darnold will play. The Vikings quarterback has revitalised his career this season, throwing 35 touchdowns. But against the Lions in week 18, the biggest game of his career, Darnold looked out of his depth. This is the former first round pick’s first playoff game and he will need to play better than in week 18 in order to win.
The good news for Darnold is that he is going up against a Rams defence that doesn’t blitz much, which is why he struggled against Detroit. L.A.’s secondary is not one of the top ranked groups in the league so the defence will have to pressure Darnold somehow, or he will find Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, two players who will break open the game if given the chance. The Rams also rank 22nd against the run so Aaron Jones and Cam Akers could be in for big days. It must be noted though that there is a lot of young talent for the Rams defensively, with players like Jared Verse, Byron Young, and Kobie Turner in their front seven.
It should also be noted that the only team other than the Lions to defeat the Vikings this season was the Rams, in a game where the Vikings were limited in their rushing attack.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Rams have a lot of experience. Quarterback Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl with wide receiver Cooper Kupp in the 2021 season. Puka Nacua is another big weapon on the Rams offence, and he got his first taste of the playoffs last season. Nacua and Kupp missed some time this season, but when they played this year, Stafford has thrown eighteen touchdowns and only five interceptions.
Stafford had Nacua and Kupp in the meeting between these teams in week 8 and threw four touchdowns. Kyren Williams also ran for ninety-seven yards that day and has had a great season. He will have a tough time getting going in this game as Minnesota defends the run better than anyone except Baltimore, although Jahmyr Gibbs caused them problems in week 18.
McVay and Stafford handled the blitz well in week 8
Minnesota blitzes more than any team in the league and the Rams will need a plan to counter that. Given Sean McVay’s experience, he will have something lined up to deal with Brian Flores’ defensive scheme. McVay and Stafford handled the blitz well in week 8 when Minnesota blitzed eleven times but only hurried the Rams quarterback twice in a game where Stafford wasn’t sacked.
I think that, although the Rams certainly have more playoff experience in key areas, the Vikings are simply the better team as a whole. I struggle to see Brian Flores’ defence struggling as much as they did the last time these two met, especially given that since L.A.’s big win against the Bills, Stafford and his team have struggled on offence. I think that Darnold proves a lot of doubters wrong and wins his first playoff game.
Prediction: Vikings 27-24 Rams
Whatever happens in the wildcard round this week, we are guaranteed drama as the NFL playoffs finally get underway.
Tom Henigan
Featured image courtesy of Brendan Beale via Unsplash. Image use license found here (Unsplash). No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @ravens via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.?
In article image 2 courtesy of @philadelphiaeagles via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.?
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