Tom Henigan
Super Bowl LIX is here and after 23 weeks of the NFL season we find ourselves with the same two teams that were left at this stage two years ago. The Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII before winning their second straight title last year against the San Francisco 49ers. Another win against the Eagles on Sunday, February 9th would make the Chiefs the first ever team to win three Super Bowls in a row. The Eagles, meanwhile, are looking to avenge their loss from two years ago. The Caesars Superdome in New Orleans will play host to this rematch as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs chase history, while Jalen Hurts looks to win his first Super Bowl title and give the Eagles their second.
Each team’s road to the Super Bowl:
Philadelphia started the season with a 2-2 record as they entered their week 5 bye. After the bye they won 12 out of 13 games, with their one loss coming against the Washington Commanders late on in a matchup where Hurts left the game with an injury in the first quarter. That impressive run left them at 14=3 with the number two seed.
In the playoffs, the Eagles started their campaign with a 22-10 win against the Green Bay Packers in which Philadelphia’s defence forced four turnovers. They then defeated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 thanks to two forced fumbles from the defence and a historic Saquon Barkley performance in the snow. That game was by far the closest of Philadelphia’s playoff matchups and they might have been eliminated had it not been for defensive tackle Jalen Carter stepping up on the final two plays of the game.
In the NFC Championship, the Eagles hosted the Commanders, who had upset the number one seed Lions. Philadelphia beat their division rivals 55-23 in a statement victory as Barkley once again starred, with Hurts also having a great performance.
The Chiefs have lost just one game this season when playing their starters, falling to the Buffalo Bills in week 11. Kansas City still earned the number one seed and a first round bye with a week to spare in the regular season. The Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans 23-14 in the divisional round and hosted the Bills in the AFC Championship. Mahomes and his team avenged their regular season loss, beating Buffalo in the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, this time by a score of 32-29.
Eagles on offence versus Chiefs on defence
Saquon Barkley is the obvious place to start in assessing how Philadelphia’s offence will fare in this game. If Barkley runs for 30 yards in the Super Bowl he will break Terrell Davis’ record of 2,476 rushing yards in the regular season and the playoffs, a record the Broncos running back achieved in the 1998 season. The Eagles running back will likely break the Hall of Famer’s record on Sunday night but there is no guarantee that he will have a big game like he did against Washington and L.A.
Kansas City only allowed one player to rush for 100+ yards against them this season
The Chiefs were the eighth best run defence in the league in the regular season. Kansas City only allowed one player to rush for 100+ yards against them this season, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week 1. Outside of Jackson, only Broncos running back Audric Estime ran for more than 85 yards against Kansas City.
If Barkley becomes the first running back this season to have 100+ yards against the Chiefs, the Eagles are in business. If he is struggling, this could quickly become a drop back passing game. Stopping Barkley reaching that mark will be tough. Not only is he arguably the best running back in the league but he also has arguably the best offensive line in the league blocking for him. The Eagles running back had the most yards before contact in the NFL this season with 1,328, over 300 more yards before contact than anyone else. He also had more yards before contact per attempt than any other running back. Add in the fact that Hurts is a threat with his legs, which he showed in the divisional round with a 44-yard rushing touchdown to open the scoring, and stopping the Eagles rushing attack is a monstrous task given the read-option ability of this offence.
But if anyone is up to the task, it is Kansas City’s defence, coached by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The key here is for the Chiefs to just focus on getting Barkley on the ground. It might sound simple but, on his first run of the game against Washington in the NFC Championship, Barkley broke two tackles before scoring a 60-yard touchdown. That was partly due to the Commanders trying to go for the big play and attempting to strip the ball from the Eagles running back. The Chiefs don’t need to do that. Of course, forcing a turnover would be great but getting Barkley on the ground quickly is the priority because he’ll punish you if you don’t.
Barkley has had nine runs of 50+ yards this season
For the Eagles, they can’t get away from the run early. They have to stick with their running game even if they are down 10 points in the 2nd quarter, for example. Barkley has had nine runs of 50+ yards this season, two more than any player ever in the regular season and playoffs for one season. At any point he can change the game.
Running the ball is what the Eagles do best and they don’t want to suffer the same fate as the Ravens in last season’s AFC Championship. Baltimore went away from what they did best, running the ball, which potentially cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.
If the Chiefs do stop the run and Philadelphia is forced to pass, many feel that favours Kansas City. While Jalen Hurts is certainly not on Patrick Mahomes’ level, the Eagles quarterback has proved that he can deliver in the passing game on the biggest stage. He threw for 304 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII. Despite the loss, that is probably the best game of Hurts’ career to this day.
Hurts still has his top weapons from that game. A.J. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league and his fellow wide receiver Devonta Smith, who would be the top receiver on most teams, seems to have gone under the radar given Philadelphia’s tendency to run the ball most of the time. Dallas Goedert at tight end is one of the best in the league at his position, a position the Chiefs have struggled guarding against all season.
Both of the Eagles’ tackles, Jordan Mailata on the left and Lane Johnson on the right, were named Second-Team All-Pros for the 2024 season
Philadelphia’s offensive line is just as elite at blocking in the passing game as they are in the running game. Both of the Eagles’ tackles, Jordan Mailata on the left and Lane Johnson on the right, were named Second-Team All-Pros for the 2024 season. Both players will have their work cut out for them as George Karlaftis, who can attack the passer from both sides, has shown time and time again that he can make plays when it matters most. Karlaftis had three sacks against the Texans in the divisional round but this will be his toughest task yet.
The biggest test for Philadelphia in protecting their quarterback will be defensive tackle Chris Jones. Jones is a future Hall of Famer and has been one of the best in the league at his position for several years now. On the interior line, the Eagles are still very strong with Mekhi Becton, Landon Dickerson and rookie centre, Cam Jurgens. Jurgens has been suffering with a back injury but is good to go for the Super Bowl. He will likely be working with either Dickerson or Becton to slow down Jones. While the legendary defensive tackle may not have had the most electrifying season on the stats sheet, he draws a lot of attention from offensive lines, opening up the game for Karlaftis or Mike Danna on the edge. Luckily for the Eagles, they have a good enough offensive line to make them feel comfortable leaving Johnson and Mailata one on one.
The Chiefs will look to get to Hurts with the blitz. Spagnuolo is known for his creative blitzes, with a big one coming in last year’s Super Bowl on a crucial 3rd down. He also saved his most ambitious call for a crotical 4th down against the Bills in the AFC Championship. He won’t be afraid to send his best cover corner, Trent McDuffie, something he did on both of the calls referenced above.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goedert make some big plays given the Chiefs’ struggles against tight ends this year
Speaking of McDuffie, he has transitioned from one of the best slot corners in the league to one of the best outside corners in the league. It will be interesting to see if he is left one on one with A.J. Brown, something Washington did on a crucial 4th down in the NFC Championship game, resulting in Brown coming down with a 31-yard catch. Jaylen Watson is Kansas City’s number two cornerback and one of the better number two cornerbacks in the NFL. He will have a tough task against Devonta Smith. Given that Brown may get a lot of attention, Smith could have a good day one on one against Watson and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goedert make some big plays given the Chiefs’ struggles against tight ends this year.
Hurts will go to Brown if he is one on one. If the Chiefs choose to use two defenders to cover Philadelphia’s best receiver, the Eagles will look to create formations which get him in single coverage. For example, when the Chiefs are in a 4-3 base defence, with just four defensive backs on the field, that could leave Brown against just McDuffie, a matchup Hurts will like. McDuffie was named as a Second-Team All Pro for this season but Philadelphia’s quarterback will trust his best receiver to get open from a one on one against any player in the league.
If the Eagles do end up leaning into the passing game, Hurts has to identify Jones on every single play. Hurts has not been good when under pressure this season so Spagnuolo will look to fool him with different looks at the line of scrimmage. Kansas City’s defensive coordinator may show some formations early in the game in order to disguise schemes that he will use later on.
The Eagles stand a better chance of winning this game with their rushing attack leading the way but I do not buy into the narrative that they can only win this game with a big day on the ground. They have too many good weapons to not pose a threat through the air and Hurts has proven he can throw the ball well in the big moments. The key for Philadelphia’s quarterback is to do what he has done throughout the playoffs, take care of the ball. The Chiefs will of course be looking to break Hurts’ trend of not turning the ball over this postseason, but Kansas City’s defence has not forced a turnover yet in the playoffs.
Mahomes and Kansas City’s offence versus Fangio’s defence
The Chiefs enter this game coming off their best offensive performance of the season. Kansas City’s 32-point display against the Bills marked the first time all season that they have scored more than 30 points. It is no surprise that the offensive unit stepped up in the biggest game of the season given their quarterback. Patrick Mahomes won his second Super Bowl MVP when he led his team to victory against the Eagles two seasons ago, and he added his third last season against the 49ers.
But this will be Mahomes’ biggest challenge yet. The Eagles were the number one regular season defence in total yards against and passing yards against. They also gave up the second fewest points in the NFL. Vic Fangio, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator, has turned the unit around after they performed poorly last year before he came in for the 2024 season.
Similarly to Hurts with Jones, Mahomes’ first priority in dealing with this defence is to identify Jalen Carter every play and make sure he has sufficient attention. Carter showed in the divisional round against the Rams that he can end a game single-handedly. Luckily for the Chiefs quarterback, he has arguably the best centre in the league snapping him the ball in Creed Humphrey.
But the man who has so often been next to Humphrey at left guard, Joe Thuney, will be starting this game at left tackle due to Kansas City’s struggles at protecting Mahomes’ blind side all season. That then poses the threat of a potential mismatch between left guard Mike Caliendo and Jalen Carter.
Nolan Smith Jr. is a big pass rush threat off of the edge
The struggles at left tackle have been an issue for the back-to-back champions all year. Thuney has struggled at times in that position but seems to have gained his footing after a solid performance in the AFC Championship. But that doesn’t mean the Eagles won’t fancy themselves to cause him issues. Nolan Smith Jr. is a big pass rush threat off of the edge and given the attention Carter will likely get, Smith Jr. could be left one on one with either Thuney or Kansas City’s right tackle, Jawaan Taylor.
For several years now, the Chiefs have been about quick and short passing. Given the issues Smith and Carter may cause, I don’t expect that to change. This is the healthiest Kansas City’s pass catchers have been all year and rookie Xavier Worthy had his best game of the season in the AFC Championship. But Worthy and his fellow receivers will be going up against an elite secondary. Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell have both had great rookie seasons. To go with that, veteran Darius Slay Jr. is probably still the man the Eagles trust most at cornerback. Kansas City’s head coach, Andy Reid, is the best play-caller in the league and he will need to be up to the task in this game.
Travis Kelce is, of course, a huge factor in this matchup. The future Hall of Famer had a big game against the Texans in the divisional round but was quieter against the Bills. Kelce has two touchdowns in Super Bowls, including one on Kansas City’s opening drive against the Eagles two years ago. He hasn’t hit his regular high standard of play this season but showed with his performance against Houston that he can still step up when it matters. Philadelphia plays zone defence the majority of the time, something Kelce thrives against much more than his fellow pass catchers.
Eagles linebacker Zack Baun has been one of the best defensive players in the league this season. Baun’s partner in the middle of the field, Oren Burks, has been great since being elevated to a starter after Nakobe Dean’s injury. Everywhere you look, Philadelphia has strength on defence.
Fangio’s unit also ranked 10th against the run this season. Carter and Baun have played a big part in that but, although the Chiefs don’t have an explosive running game like the Eagles, they are very efficient on the ground. Kareem Hunt rarely hits the second level to break off a big run but his efficiency in the run game is undeniable. The same goes for Isiah Pacheco, who has suffered with injuries this season, meaning the Chiefs have often relied on Hunt more. Mahomes is also a big threat with his legs, something the Eagles know all too well after he had a big run on Kansas City’s game winning drive in Super Bowl LVII.
For all his greatness, Mahomes has struggled at times in Super Bowls
As talented as Philadelphia’s defence is, I still see the Chiefs having success on offence with their efficient run game and short passing offence. But the Eagles have thrived at forcing turnovers this season and that has never been more clear than in their playoff run. Philadelphia’s defence has 10 takeaways in their three playoff games. As for the Chiefs, they have given the ball away just once in their two playoff games, an inexplicable fumble by Mahomes against the Bills. One factor that is understated in this game is that, for all his greatness, Mahomes has struggled at times in Super Bowls. In his four appearances in the big game, he has five interceptions. But the last time he threw a pick was all the way back in week 11 in his only loss this season.
It is almost a necessity that the Eagles force at least one turnover because in the last three years when Mahomes starts, the Chiefs are 34-1 when they tie or win the turnover battle. For reference, when they have lost the turnover battle, the Chiefs are 14-9 in that same timeframe.
Special Teams
Both of these teams have kickers that they have won Super Bowls with. Jake Elliott was crowned champion with Philadelphia in his rookie season, 2017. But, as reliable as he has been since then, Elliott has struggled this season. He made just 77.8% of his field goals in the regular season. In the playoffs, he has improved on the field goal front, making six of seven. That includes three in tough conditions against the Rams, and conditions won’t be an issue in New Orleans’ Superdome. But this game could come down to one point and Elliott has missed three of his 12 extra point attempts in the playoffs.
The Chiefs also have a knack for blocking field goals in crucial moments. They blocked one against the Texans in the divisional round and also stopped a field goal in week 10 against the Broncos to keep their undefeated season alive at the time.
Harrison Butker has made countless crucial kicks for Kansas City. On the top of that list is when he hit a Super Bowl winning field goal in Arizona against the Eagles. Butker has had a down year, making 84% of his field goals in the regular season, which is below his career average. But he missed just two extra points all year and has been perfect in the postseason. His concern may come from distance as he made just two out of five 50+ yard attempts in the regular season and is yet to attempt a field goal from that range in the playoffs.
Nikko Remigio is a player that many NFL fans hadn’t heard of before the playoffs. But he had a 63-yard return on the opening kickoff against the Texans to start Kansas City’s playoff run and then had a 44-yard punt return late in the 2nd quarter against the Bills. That has put Remigio on the map as a potential X factor in this game.
The flip side to that is the fact that Philadelphia opened their playoff campaign by forcing a fumble on Green Bay’s kickoff return to start the game.
In as close a game as as this will likely be, special teams is always crucial and can often define the outcome.
Prediction: Chiefs 31-27 Eagles
From players two through 53, the Eagles have the better roster, there is no denying that. But the Chiefs have the advantage at quarterback which is why they have won the last two Super Bowls. Mahomes is 8-0 against Vic Fangio’s defences and is 12-0 in domes, two undefeated record that I think will be extended. Kansas City will be incredibly efficient on offence and even if they are behind the sticks, they have the Mahomes to Kelce connection which thrives against zone coverage. Spagnuolo’s defence will have to make big plays and I think they will given the talent they have in Jones, Karlaftis, McDuffie etc. Kansas City’s defensive coordinator is so often up to the task in the biggest spots and he will continue that trend in this game.
Tom Henigan
Featured image courtesy of Mick Haupt via Unsplash. Image use license found here (Unsplash). No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @nfloncbs via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
In article image 2 courtesy of @espnnfl via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
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