Myriad predictions and observations from tennis pundits in the past eighteen months have proved to be grossly inaccurate or, at best, short-sighted. Whether it be regarding Federer entering his twilight years, or the ability of the aptly-titled ‘Big Four’ to hold off the challenge of the rest of the field, making a prediction this year has been both futile and dangerous. This is aside from the yearly procession which is Rafael Nadal’s inevitable triumph at Roland Garros. Despite this, it is very possible that the top four players will include the usual suspects of Djokovic, Federer, Murray and Nadal. 2014 has seen the gap between the top four close and two brand-new slam champions crowned. Heading into the final showdown in London, predicting a winner of the event is still a complex affair.
(2) Roger Federer (7/2 Outright Winner)
After falling from grace by his epoch-defining high standards in 2013, it was considered more likely by those inside the sport that Federer would win a slam before finishing atop the world rankings again. However, on the eve of the final tournament of the year, the six-time champion has gone from 8th in the rankings at the start of the year to an outside chance of ending the year as world number one. This, though, would require an undefeated campaign along with an unlikely loss of form from the defending champion Novak Djokovic.
Federer’s hand skills have never been in doubt but his timing and anticipation at the net have not been as comparable to his all-round attributes
In 2014, Federer has been inspired (not least by the hiring of Stefan Edberg) to some of his best tennis since 2009, even including his slam victories in Australia in 2010 and Wimbledon in 2012. Darren Cahill described Federer’s aging body as a blessing in disguise, saying ‘his physical limitations provide a more definitive game-plan’. No doubt consultations with his ‘super-coach’ have facilitated this ultra-aggressive style. Federer’s hand skills have never been in doubt but his timing and anticipation at the net have not been as comparable to his all-round attributes. Focus and rigorous training have improved this aspect of his game immeasurably. He came tantalisingly close to winning his 18th grand slam at Wimbledon, losing in a tight fifth set to Djokovic, the favourite to win the title in London. This, along with five titles and two other grand slam semi-final showings, has brought him back into the fold as one of the sport’s most imposing figures.
Roger will have little to fear regarding the draw in his group. Despite his competitive head-to-head against Murray, he is yet to lose to the Scot at the year-end event in three meetings. He also has a winning record against Milos Raonic. However, he lost to Raonic on their most recent encounter last week in Paris. Federer is level with Nishikori and the Japanese man has the game to cause difficulties for the veteran Swiss master in indoor conditions.
Physicality becomes more difficult as a player ages, so for Federer to compete over an entire year with much younger men and complete the year as the unlikely world No. 1 could well be his crowning glory.
2014 standout performance: beat Djokovic, SF Shanghai, 6-4 6-4
Head-to-head vs. Group: 19-14
(5) Kei Nishikori (16/1 Outright Winner)
Nishikori is the first Asian man to reach the top ten, to qualify for the end-of-year championships and to reach a grand slam final. He accomplished all these achievements plus four other titles in a single year. The 24-year-old, 5’10’’ Japanese man is another player to have bought into the super-coach ethos which was pioneered by Andy Murray. Coached by former French Open champion Michael Chang, the man described by Federer as ‘unbelievably talented’ has proved in 2014 to be dangerous on all surfaces and against all opponents.
His comparatively diminutive stature makes his an unlikely candidate for grand-slam success but his ability to take the ball earlier than almost any player on tour negates the power most players have
His comparatively diminutive stature makes his an unlikely candidate for grand-slam success but his ability to take the ball earlier than almost any player on tour negates the power most players have at the top of the game to essentially blast opponents off the court. His comprehensive winning records against Marin Cilic, Tomas Berdych and Milos Raonic reinforce this.
Rather like Federer, being coached by a legend of the game with a similar style has indisputably aided in not just inspiration to achieve, but also the motivation to put in the hard work required to attain the desired results. Due to his minor physical frailties his unfortunate propensity for injury has somewhat curbed his aspirations for reaching the World Tour Finals in previous years. He will be exhilarated by the opportunity at playing this event but obviously has no experience of the pressures such a tournament presents. That could swing the balance in matches against accomplished rivals such as Federer. His poor record against Murray will likely have to be overcome to qualify from the group.
2014 standout performance: beat Djokovic, SF US Open, 6-4 1-6 7-6 6-3
Head-to-head vs. Group: 6-6
(6) Andy Murray (7/1 Outright Winner)
‘Bad year!’ were the words Murray himself wrote on the broadcasting camera after his victory over Grigor Dimitrov at the Paris Open, which guaranteed his qualification for the Finals. Murray himself described it as ‘a hard year, a tough year but not a bad year’. Even for an impartial observer it is hard to argue against this point considering the Scot has won three titles and reached at least the quarter-final of every grand slam.
Murray’s match-up against Federer may decide the group
On the other hand, Murray’s performances against his nearest rivals have been less than convincing, with a record of 4-9 against top 10 players this season and no wins coming against Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. In a tournament where only the top eight qualify, this may have been a cause of concern had his form coming into the tournament not been quite so impressive. Fortunately for Murray his draw has been reasonably kind having never lost to Nishikori and, despite having a losing record against him, beat Raonic comfortably at their most high-profile encounter at the US Open. The match-up against Federer may decide the group and given his resurgence may require a performance above what Murray has attained thus far even in his end-of-season success.
2014 standout performance: beat Kohlschreiber, R3 French Open 3-6 6-3 6-3 4-6 12-10
Head-to-head vs. Group: 15-14
(8) Milos Raonic (21/1 Outright Winner)
The world record holder for the fastest serve only qualified by beating Federer last time round, which perhaps may give him the confidence required to reach the semi-finals of his maiden Finals. Raonic, like Murray, has had an inconsistent year, with only one title and one other final appearance. However, he reached his first Wimbledon semi-final, living up to the success many predicted he would achieve in his earlier years. The 24-year-old Canadian has the serve and forehand to trouble most players on tour. Though this year, he hasn’t made particularly noticeable improvements in other areas required to reach the upper echelons of the game, like defence and movement.
As the youngest man in the tournament, this will likely be a wonderful experience and learning curve for him to take forward
Aside from Murray, his record against his fellow contenders in the group is poor and even Murray matches up very well in his ability to nullify Raonic’s primary weapon. Similarly to Nishikori, Raonic will need to reverse his form against the other players in his group merely to get to the semi-finals. As the youngest man in the tournament, this will likely be a wonderful experience and learning curve for him to take forward into the new year and potentially boost his ranking going into the 2015 Australian Open.
2014 standout performance: beat Federer, QF Paris Bercy, 7-6 7-5
Head-to-head vs. Group: 5-11
The event starts this Sunday (9th November) with Nishikori-Murray at 2pm and Federer-Raonic from 8pm.
Stephen Kenny
