Ben Nathan
The Academy Awards are the staple and most prestigious award show in the film industry. The timeframe of the awards, dubbed ‘Oscar season’, are a time when film fanatics make their predictions on who could be nominated and win. Ben Nathan takes a look at the nominations and predicts this year’s winners.
On January 24th, 2023, the nominations for the 95th Academy Awards were announced, rejoicing film critics, fans and cinephiles alike. Some things to note; Everything Everywhere All at Once is the most nominated film with 11 nominations. This is followed by All Quiet on the Western Front and The Banshees of Inisherin with 9 each, Elvis with 8 and The Fabelmans with 7. With Michelle Yeoh, Hong Chau, Stephanie Hsu, and Ke Huy Quan receiving nominations, it’s the first year where four actors of Asian descent received Oscar nominations in one year. We also have 16 first time nominees across the acting categories, the most in any year. Angela Bassett became the first person to receive an acting nomination for a Marvel film. John Williams became the oldest Oscar nominee in history at 90 years old with his 53rd nomination for Best Score. Finally, Judd Hirsch set the record for the longest gap between Oscar nominations, with his first occurring in 1981 and now again in 2022.
With many shocks, surprises and snubs aplenty, as well as nominations and some winners decided from major Oscar precursors like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, the Guilds (Screen Actors, Directors, Producers and Writers) and BAFTA, I’ll be discussing the nominations in the top categories, who I think will win and who I would choose.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
This is a genuinely strong line-up of choices for Best Picture this year. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick facilitated a return to the blockbuster films that bought audiences to the cinemas again following the COVID-19 pandemic. Auteur films like All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking makes for a lovely presence, whilst Everything Everywhere All at Once was the indie darling turned smash hit of the year. Films like Babylon, The Whale, Glass Onion or She Said would’ve made a nice replacement for the average Elvis, but it is still a very strong list overall. Everything Everywhere All at Once has the prowess, support and general love that not many other films have this year and given its unconventionality as an “Oscar film”, it would be refreshing to see this win, and I think its momentum could take it over the finish line.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Personal Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field – Tár
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben ?stlund – Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
This is a year of four first time best director nominees bar Steven Spielberg, who seemed to be the frontrunner for this award for his semi-autobiographical film, but support for him has slowly dwindled as the season has gone on. The Academy did their usual practice of finding a foreign director to nominate, with Ruben ?stlund taking that honour this year, but did not resume their streak of nominating female directors as they had been doing the previous two years. A great year for women in film, it would’ve been exciting to see someone like Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun), Maria Schrader (She Said) or Chinonye Chukwu (Till), garner a nomination, but alas, here we are. Other directors like Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), or James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) would’ve been deserving also. The Daniels, very much like their film, have seemed like very unlikely winners for their wacky yet poignant multiverse film, but given their Critics Choice win, and Directors Guild of America and BAFTA nominations (two honours which Spielberg did not receive), it puts them firmly as the most likely winners for now.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Personal Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Here we have a category of all first time nominees, something that hasn’t been seen since the 7th Academy Awards in 1934. We could’ve seen previous nominees Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick or Hugh Jackman in The Son possibly crash this list, but we didn’t. The Banshees of Inisherin has a major flurry of support having received nominations for all four of its actors, suggesting a great respect for the acting in this film. Colin Farrell could benefit from this support and already won a Golden Globe for this performance. Austin Butler has the transformation narrative on his side, as his effort to become Elvis Presley is something the Academy has always loved when it comes to awarding people for acting Oscars, and also won a Golden Globe. Paul Mescal and Bill Nighy are also both fantastic choices, but Brendan Fraser’s performance has been lauded all year and also fuelled people into terming his comeback as the ‘Brenaissance’. The overwhelming support for Fraser as an actor, as well as his mighty performance in The Whale, and moving and emotional speech for his Critics Choice win, could propel him to Oscar glory.
Predicted Winner: Brendan Fraser
Personal Winner: Colin Farrell
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – Tár
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
What started the season as the strongest acting category turned into a somewhat average one on Oscar nominations morning. Andrea Riseborough shocked the world with her nomination that seemed completely out of the question until several A-list celebrities such as Gwyneth Paltrow, Kate Winslet and Jennifer Aniston started endorsing her online and voters hosted screenings of her film during voting period. It’s a nomination bought about by a grassroots campaign that will likely change the way we see Oscar campaigning in the future. Riseborough and Ana de Armas’ (in Blonde, a film that critics and audiences mostly severely disliked), likely took out long predicted nominees Viola Davis in The Woman King and Danielle Deadwyler in Till, calling questions to the Academy’s routine ignorance of women of colour and nominating them for acting Oscars. Deadwyler’s omission seemed particularly egregious, given her overwhelming critical acclaim. Margot Robbie (Babylon), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), and Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), would also have been delightfully welcome nominations. This race ultimately comes down to Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, who both won Golden Globes. Yeoh’s nomination for an especially outstanding performance, and a sort of celebration of her 40-year long career where she has been consistently overlooked is much more of an appealing narrative than giving Blanchett her third Oscar. However, Blanchett’s performance has been so widely praised that it might be a performance that is too hard to deny.
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett
Personal Winner: Michelle Yeoh
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Besides Quan and Gleeson, nominations in this category seemed up in the air for the longest time. Keoghan managed to come along for the ride with Gleeson for a very well deserved nomination, whilst Hirsch essentially punched Paul Dano in the face as the actor from The Fabelmans to receive a nomination, and I say this because Dano had the stronger showing before nominations day, having received a SAG nomination. Although, this is also very similar to Judi Dench getting a nomination over Caitriona Balfe last year for Belfast, something that shocked many people, so maybe this is to become more commonplace from now on and we can begin to expect the unexpected. Henry’s nomination is a great and inspired choice in a very small and quiet film. Overall, it’s a strong category, and probably the most locked up of the night. Ke Huy Quan has had consistent wins with critics groups as well as the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and seems all but certain to take the trophy on Oscars night.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan
Personal Winner: Barry Keoghan
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Even though many deserving actresses like Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy (both Women Talking), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Nina Hoss (Tár), and Carey Mulligan (She Said) missed a nomination, this still ended up as an extremely strong category. With the exception of probably Jamie Lee Curtis, anyone here would be a deserving winner after all giving powerful performances in their films. Kerry Condon, Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu are all absolutely fantastic, but might not have the name power or recognition to receive a significant number of votes, whereas Angela Bassett does. Bassett having the distinction of being the first person to receive an acting nomination for a Marvel movie suggests the respect for her as an actress no matter what type of movie she is in. Given she’s an industry veteran that people love, receiving her first nomination in 30 years, and she already won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, there are many reasons to assume she could win this award on Oscars night.
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett
Personal Winner: Hong Chau
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
This is probably the one category where voters can align their votes with how they would go for Best Picture, but it also seems the best chance the Academy will have to recognise Martin McDonagh’s work and The Banshees of Inisherin as a whole. Along with Everything Everywhere All at Once, these two seem the most likely to split votes as they are probably the two front runners in best picture. Tár, Triangle of Sadness and The Fabelmans are all strong best picture contenders with sharp dialogue and wonderfully original stories and would be worthy winners as well. However, only one film significantly tugged at the heartstrings through wacky and ridiculous sequences such as two rocks inaudibly conversing, and making hot dog fingers seem emotional and plausible, so Everything Everywhere All at Once seems a great pick here.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Personal Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Frankly, it’s a shame that Women Talking received no other nominations besides this one and best picture, and the Academy could use this opportunity to award a female filmmaker a major award this year after completely omitting them from best director. Women Talking also does feel like the most talky and dialogue-y film of the year, so it has that to its advantage. Its biggest competitor, The Whale, didn’t even end up nominated here, so it seems this could be Sarah Polley’s for the taking. All Quiet on the Western Front and Living were poignant and heartfelt screenplays, whilst Glass Onion was certainly the most fun. I don’t have much to say about Top Gun: Maverick, as I’m not entirely sure how it managed to get nominated in this category. Whilst by no means locked and still very much up in the air, Women Talking may ride this wave to Oscar success.
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Personal Winner: Women Talking
Ben Nathan
Featured image courtesy of Vincentas Liskauskas via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
In article trailer 1 courtesy of Paramount Pictures via YouTube.com. No changes were made to this video.
In article trailer 2 courtesy of Netflix via YouTube.com. No changes were made to this video.
In article trailer 3 courtesy of Netflix via YouTube.com. No changes were made to this video.
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