Impossible peace in the Middle East?

Oscar McKevitt Flack

Whilst war rages in Gaza, a new front has just opened 180 miles away along the border between Israel and Lebanon with Israeli forces launching a ground offensive against Hezbollah, an armed Lebanese group. The attack is the culmination of decades of conflict and hostility between Israel and the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah and comes days after an airstrike killed Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. At the time of writing, the recent escalation of conflict has seen the total number of Lebanese citizens killed and wounded by Israeli strikes over the past year rise to 9,384. But what has caused the conflict to spread and is there any chance of peace?

History of Conflict: Hezbollah and Israel

During its civil war (1982) that had been waging for 7 years, Lebanon was invaded by Israel in response to attacks on it by the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). After occupying the South of Lebanon, an agreement was reached in which the PLO left for Tunisia, however, Israeli military forces remained in Lebanon supporting proxies in the civil war. For example, the Phalange, an Israeli-backed group was responsible for the infamous Sabra and Shatila Massacre when, on September 16, 1982, between 2,000 and 3,500 Muslim Lebanese and Palestinian civilians were killed.

It was during this period that Hezbollah grew its roots. Several Lebanese groups joined together to counter the Israeli invasion. One of these groups was from the Shia Muslim community and drawing on support from disaffected populations within large Shia communities, quickly became a powerful faction in Lebanon. 

Hezbollah’s popularity and strength come from both its significant financial and military support from Iran and its claim of victory over Israel in 2000 which they attested their forces pushed Israel’s army back out of Lebanon.

The attack on Monday is reported to be Lebanon’s deadliest day since the conflict in 2006

The two sides have had clashes and skirmishes since the 1980s, however, the attack on Monday is reported to be Lebanon’s deadliest day since the conflict in 2006 in which approximately 1,200 Lebanese people were killed and 4,400 obtained wounds and Israel reported 158 deaths.

The tit-for-tat relationship escalated dramatically when Israel launched large-scale and coordinated pager and walkie-talkie explosions throughout Beirut and Lebanon on September 17th and 18th. It has been reported that 12 people were killed and approximately 2,800 people were injured in these attacks on Tuesday 17^th and an additional 14 were killed on the following Wednesday. 

American military and financial aid that recently saw an $8.7 billion aid package given to Israel.

The relationship between Israel and Hezbollah has a long, bloodied history in which both sides have inflicted casualties and has been made even more complicated by Iran’s interests and goal of the political and military strangulation of Israel through the use of proxies. Hezbollah is one such proxy and initially was successful in forcing some 60,000 Israelis to evacuate from the Israel-Lebanon border. However, as this long and bloody year draws to an end, Israel appears stronger and more determined than ever due to American military and financial aid that recently saw an $8.7 billion aid package given to Israel. On the other hand, a campaign of strikes and sabotage has crippled both Hezbollah’s command structure and offensive capabilities with Israeli intelligence estimates suggesting that at least half of Hezbollah’s stockpile of Iranian missiles has been destroyed through air strikes.

The Current Conflict and Uncertain Future:

In the most recent escalation between the two groups, Israeli military personnel and tanks were amassed at the border with Lebanon and crossed over early on Tuesday morning. 

Israel’s military, The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), has stated it is conducting “limited, localised, and targeted ground raids’’ in the South of Lebanon with the aim of dismantling Hezbollah’s so-called ‘’terrorist infrastructure”.

In response to Israel’s invasion, Iran launched almost 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday 1^st October and in his first public appearance since the missile attack, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei led prayers at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla mosque.

Moreover, Khamenei reaffirmed Iran’s support for Hezbollah and Hamas when he stated that “the resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders” and called Iran’s attack “legal and legitimate”.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701

All this points to a wider conflict in the region despite the unelected government of Lebanon stating that it does not want another war with Israel. On Monday the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Najib Mikati, announced that his government is ready to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was used to bring an end to the war of 2006.

The future of the Middle East seems as uncertain as ever. What does seem certain, however, is neither Israel nor Hezbollah appears to want to back down and neither do their supporters.

Oscar McKevitt Flack