Tom Henigan
It is not an overstatement to call this a legacy-defining matchup. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have met in the playoffs in three out of the last four seasons. The Chiefs have been victorious in all of those matchups. They beat Buffalo in the 2020/21 AFC Championship, the 2021/22 divisional round in one of the greatest games ever, and then defeated the Bills last season, in Buffalo, in the divisional round again. A win for the Bills here would send them to their first Super Bowl since the 1993/94 season while a win for the Chiefs would see them make their third Super Bowl in a row as they chase a historic three-peat.
Given the importance of the quarterback position, the narrative leading up to this game has been “Allen is 0-3 against Mahomes in the playoffs” when really, he is 0-3 against Kansas City’s defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo. But Allen got the better of the Chiefs defence in week 11 when he had over 300 total yards and two touchdowns in a 30-21 win. That loss in Buffalo was Kansas City’s only one of the season when they played their full-strength team. While Allen did have an interception in the win against the Chiefs, Buffalo’s main formula to success this season has been taking care of the ball.
A big criticism of Allen’s play in the past has been his reckless turnovers but this year has been different. As an offence, the Bills only gave away the ball eight times this season, less than any other team. Like the other three teams remaining in the playoffs, they have yet to turn the ball over this postseason. Changing that will be the priority of Spagnuolo but as good as Kansas City’s defence is, they ranked in the middle of the league in takeaways in the regular season and didn’t force one in the divisional round against the Houston Texans.
James Cook will need to be held in check by the Chiefs
Jaden Hicks led the Chiefs this season in interceptions with three, and he isn’t even a starting safety, so their defence doesn’t necessarily possess any natural ballhawks which means scheming is how they will look to take the ball away. This game will be about the Chiefs keeping the Buffalo offence in tough down and distance situations and then forcing Josh Allen to make an ill advisable throw. James Cook will need to be held in check by the Chiefs because, although his stat line against the Baltimore Ravens was not eye popping, the Bills running back did enough to keep Buffalo in comfortable situations on offence.
Spagnuolo is known for the creativity of his pass rush schemes, especially in the playoffs. That was on full display against the Texans when on a critical 4th and 10 for Houston, the Chiefs got a mismatch with George Karlaftis on the Texans tight end, leading to a sack on C.J. Stroud. Allen is a more experienced quarterback and behind a much better offensive line, so he won’t be sacked eight times like Stroud was, but Spagnuolo will save his most creative pass rush schemes for the most critical moments. That means Allen’s communication at the line of scrimmage will have to be perfect on the road in Arrowhead, and I can’t imagine it being quiet.
Chris Jones is the obvious threat on the defensive line for the Chiefs. Given that Buffalo has two great tackles on their offensive line that they believe can shut down Karlaftis, wherever he lines up, two offensive linemen will likely be used to block Jones for the majority of this game. Allen was the least sacked quarterback in the regular season and the Chiefs didn’t get to him when they blitzed him in week 11, but it is how they got their interception in that game.
As reckless as Allen has been in the past in the regular season, he has rarely been like that in the playoffs, turning the ball over just six times in his 12 postseason games. Combine that playoff efficiency with how well he has done with taking care of the ball this season, Kansas City faces a tall task in forcing turnovers in this matchup.
Allen himself is a huge threat with his legs and the Chiefs know that better than anybody
The Bills have had a much more balanced offence this season, spreading the ball around to everyone. Josh Allen trusts every single one of his receivers to make a play and that trust is what has got them here. Khalil Shakir is probably the number one receiver on this team if there is one, but he may have a tough matchup against Trent McDuffie, depending on Spagnuolo’s defensive gameplan. Allen will continue to distribute the ball evenly in this game, while Joe Brady, Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, will look to maintain their balanced offence by giving James Cook a big workload. If Buffalo can run the ball well with Cook, they can keep Patrick Mahomes off of the field for extended periods of time, something that would be in their best interest given the heartbreak number 15 of the Chiefs has caused to this team over the years. Of course, Allen himself is a huge threat with his legs and the Chiefs know that better than anybody. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on 4th and 2 in week 11 to secure Buffalo’s victory over Kansas City.
Now let’s look at the other side of the ball. Patrick Mahomes has dominated the NFL since his first year as a starter when he threw 50 touchdowns and won league MVP. Since Mahomes suffered a loss in overtime of the 2018/19 AFC Championship, he has been back to this stage in all six seasons, hosting all of them except for last season’s edition. In that time, he has also been to four Super Bowls, winning three as he enters this matchup looking to put himself one game away from a historic three-peat.
With all of that being said, Mahomes has not had his best season and although he usually steps up when the playoffs come around, he was relatively pedestrian against the Texans. However, what has also been true for most of this season is that Mahomes has made big plays in the most important situations. His touchdown pass to Travis Kelce on 3rd and goal while being tackled by a Texans defender was the latest example of that.
Mahomes threw 11 interceptions this season, a high amount by his standards. The last time he threw an interception? In Buffalo on November 17th when he threw two. Since then, the three-time Super Bowl MVP has thrown 12 touchdowns and zero picks. The Chiefs rely on their defence to make stops and trust Mahomes and the offence to make enough plays to get the win.
As an offence, the Chiefs have not given the ball away since that game at Highmark Stadium.
It is not just Mahomes that has been playing a clean game since the loss to the Bills. As an offence, the Chiefs have not given the ball away since that game at Highmark Stadium. But this Bills defence had 32 takeaways in the regular season, the third most in the league. They also had three against the Ravens, a team that took care of the ball well all season. No defence had more fumble recoveries in the regular season than Buffalo’s and Terrel Bernard reminded everyone of that when he punched the ball out of Mark Andrews’ hands in the divisional round.
The biggest concern for Chiefs fans will be their left tackle position. It has been an issue all season for the back-to-back defending champions and continued to be a problem against the Texans. Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa will likely move around with each getting a shot at that side of the Chiefs offensive line. Joe Thuney, the all-pro guard, will likely be Kansas City’s left tackle again despite the fact that he gave up two sacks and a 15% pressure rate against the Texans. While Thuney was going up against Will Anderson Jr., one of the best pass rushers in the league, Rousseau and Epenesa are no slouches, with Rousseau having two sacks in this postseason already.
In the passing game, Travis Kelce will be Buffalo’s biggest concern. 2024 was not his best regular season but Kelce had 117 yards and a touchdown against the Texans in the divisional round. The priority for the Bills secondary has to be the Chiefs tight end given his playoff success. Buffalo plays a lot of man defence so it will be interesting to see who matches up with him, likely a cornerback such as Taron Johnson or Christian Benford. The Bills secondary as a whole could be a concern given that starting safety, Taylor Rapp, is out of this game. Along with that, Benford is listed as questionable at the time of writing.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco delivered somewhat lacklustre stat lines in the regular season, with Pacheco missing over half of the games played. But Hunt ranked eleventh in the league in rushing success rate in the regular season and Pacheco ranked well above league average in the same stat. Along with that, neither player has fumbled the ball all season. So, while Kansas City’s top two running backs haven’t necessarily had the most explosive plays, they have both been very reliable this season.
Both teams have a kicker they have trusted for years. For the Bills, it is Tyler Bass. Buffalo’s kicker made 82.8% of his field goals in the regular season, slightly below his career average, but he has made all five that he has attempted from 50+ yards. Last season, Bass missed a 44-yard field goal in Buffalo’s home playoff loss to the Chiefs, which would have tied the game with under two minutes left. That will be a big topic of conversation between Jim Nantz and Tony Romo on commentary should Bass have to attempt another crucial kick.
Harrison Butker, Kansas City’s kicker, made 84% of his field goals in the regular season, the second worst rate in a regular season of his career. He has also made just two out of five kicks from 50+ yards this season. But Butker has always been reliable for the Chiefs, missing just four out of 39 field goals in the postseason since he was a rookie in 2017. The Chiefs kicker hit a game winning kick in Super Bowl LVII, and last season he sent Super Bowl LVIII to overtime with a field goal. One other Butker kick that springs to mind is the successful 49-yard attempt against the Bills in the 21/22 divisional round to take the game to overtime.
This game will come down to which offence will make the biggest mistake and turn the ball over, something neither team has done much this season. If neither team turns it over, it will be about which quarterback will make the biggest play in the biggest moment. The Bills ranked second in red zone offence in the regular season, while the Chiefs ranked twenty-second. But the Chiefs ranked seventh in red zone defence to Buffalo’s sixteenth.
I said at the start of this article that this is a legacy-defining game. This is true for Mahomes because he is on a quest for a three-peat that would put him right in the topic of discussions with Tom Brady for the greatest quarterback ever. But, in terms of legacy, this game is about Josh Allen more than anyone.
Allen’s performance in the 42-36 divisional round loss at Arrowhead in the 2021/22 season is amongst the best showings we have ever seen from a losing quarterback
Allen has been attributed with the stat of being 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs more than anyone else that has been with Buffalo since the 2020 season. The 0-3 record is an unfair stat to put Allen as the leading figure of, given how well he has played in those games. In the three losses, Buffalo’s quarterback has 343.3 total yards per game, nine total touchdowns, just one turnover, and a passer rating of 98.9. Along with that, Allen’s performance in the 42-36 divisional round loss at Arrowhead in the 2021/22 season is amongst the best showings we have ever seen from a losing quarterback. In that game, Allen walked off of the field with a 36-33 lead and 13 seconds left on the clock. He never saw the ball again and Patrick Mahomes is the reason why. That’s been the problem for Allen, as great as he has been in these matchups, Mahomes has always been slightly better.
A lot of the talk going into this game has been about Allen taking care of the ball and playing like he has all season instead of previous years. That is, of course, what he needs to do, but he has been great against the Chiefs in the playoffs over the years and turnovers have not been the issue. Allen knows how to play well against Kansas City and not turn it over, he just needs to make sure he isn’t trying to do too much at once, like Lamar Jackson against the Bills last week. Buffalo’s head coach, Sean McDermott, is the man who should be under the most pressure this week given that Mahomes has ripped apart his defence consistently in the playoffs.
But, whether it’s fair or not, if the Bills lose this game, every media outlet will be throwing around the same stat. A Chiefs win would mean that Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 against Josh Allen in the playoffs, something no quarterback has ever done against another in the postseason.
This will not be the high-flying offensive shootout that we saw a few years ago. I expect clean, efficient offence from both teams, but I struggle to look past Mahomes and the Chiefs at home in the biggest moment.
Prediction: Bills 24-27 Chiefs
Tom Henigan
Featured image courtesy of Lucas Andrade via Unsplash. Image use license found here (Unsplash). No changes were made to this image.
In article image 1 courtesy of @nfloncbs via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.?
In article image 2 courtesy of @nfl via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.?
In article image 3 courtesy of @chiefs via Instagram. No changes were made to this image.
For more content including uni news, reviews, entertainment, lifestyle, features and so much more, follow us on Twitter and Instagram, and like our Facebook page for more articles and information on how to get involved.
For further sports content and ways to get involved, follow @ImpactSport on Twitter and Instagram, and like the Impact Sport Facebook page!
