Tom Henigan
For the second time in three seasons the NFC Championship will take place in Philadelphia. In a battle between two NFC East teams, this is just the fifth matchup between two division rivals in a conference championship game since the NFL realignment in 2002.
The Washington Commanders come into this game after shocking the NFL world with a 45-31 victory in Detroit over the number one seed Lions. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been sensational in the playoffs so far but will face his biggest challenge yet on Sunday.
The Philadelphia Eagles enter this game as favourites to make the Super Bowl. Saquon Barkley continues to remain the face of this team after his 205-yard rushing performance against the Rams. Philadelphia’s defence is also a huge reason why they are here and will need to slow down Daniels to ensure the Eagles advance to the big game.
Looking at Philadelphia’s offence, there has been a lot of talk about their passing game, or lack thereof, throughout these playoffs. In their two postseason games, the Eagles have a total of 186 passing yards. For context, the heavy snow against the Los Angeles Rams would not have helped that stat but either way the passing game has been underwhelming for the Philadelphia.
In their win against the Lions, Washington gave up over 200 rushing yards
However, Eagles fans would argue the fact that they do not need a strong passing game given the production of their rushing attack which has given them 454 yards in the playoffs so far. Their starting running back, Saquon Barkley, has been the focal point of their offence all season, so why change now? If the Eagles want to win this game, they should stick with what has worked and I think they will. The Commanders had the third worst rushing defence in the league in the regular season and even in their win against the Lions, Washington gave up over 200 rushing yards with Jahmyr Gibbs averaging over seven yards a run.
Barkley is obviously great, but Philadelphia’s offensive line has been a huge reason for his success this season. Over the regular season, the Eagles had 2,011 rushing yards before contact when no other team had over 1,900 and only one other had over 1,800. That yards before contact will be important because the Commanders do not miss many tackles. They only missed 80 in the regular season with only four teams missing fewer. This Washington defence is also led by future Hall of Fame linebacker, Bobby Wagner, who led the team in tackles this season.
Washington’s priority will be stopping Barkley especially after Hurts, who is a threat with his legs, suffered an injury in the 2nd quarter against the Rams which hindered his movement. Although the Eagles quarterback played the rest of the game, it is hard to see him recovering enough to have more plays like his 44-yard touchdown run in the first quarter against L.A.
As stated before, the Eagles have struggled passing the ball this season. Of course, they possess great weapons with the likes of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith at the wide receiver position, but Washington would much rather have Hurts try and beat them through the air than Barkley try and beat them on the ground. Getting to Hurts in the passing game won’t be easy against a great offensive line but that group did allow seven sacks last week so players like Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong will be looking to make plays.
The Commanders had five takeaways against the Lions, a team that turned it over just 15 times in the regular season
One thing Hurts deserves credit for is not turning the ball over. He only had ten giveaways in the regular season and has none in the postseason so far. To add to that, he only has three giveaways in his seven career playoff games with two of those coming in his first playoff game back in the 2021 season. The Commanders had five takeaways against the Lions, a team that turned it over just 15 times in the regular season, the same as the Eagles. Washington’s defence hasn’t had a ton of splash plays this season, ranking fifteenth in sacks and twenty-sixth in takeaways in the regular season, but the unit stepped up against Detroit and they will need to do the same here.
If Washington stops the run, they will put themselves in a position to make plays on defence. But no one has stopped Saquon Barkley this year and Washington will have to keep their concentration on every single play. If you take away Barkley’s two longest carries against the Rams from the last round, he had 24 carries for 65 yards with an average of under three yards per carry. But his two biggest runs were both touchdowns, from 62 yards away and then from 78 yards away. Every single snap matters when trying to stop Saquon Barkley. The Commanders know that better than anyone given that the Eagles running back had 55 carries for 296 yards and four touchdowns in the two games against them this season.
The more intriguing matchup in this game is Jayden Daniels against the Philadelphia defence, at least in my opinion. These two teams have faced twice this year with each team winning their home matchup. While the Eagles were without Jalen Hurts for the majority of their 36-33 loss to the Commanders, Daniels was still great against an elite defence. Despite his two interceptions, the rookie quarterback threw five touchdowns, including the game winning one with six seconds left.
The Commanders did have five turnovers in that game but the 36 points they scored will give them confidence going into this game. Daniels had 81 rushing yards in that win to go with his 258 passing yards and stopping the Washington quarterback from using his legs needs to be one of Philadelphia’s priorities.
When he was blitzed in the divisional round against the Lions, the rookie quarterback completed 12 out of 16 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown
It will be interesting to see how often Philadelphia blitzes Daniels. When he was blitzed in the divisional round against the Lions, the rookie quarterback completed 12 out of 16 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. In the week 11 matchup between these two teams, Daniels was sacked three times, but the Eagles got to him just once in week 16. If the Commanders want to protect their quarterback then stopping Jalen Carter has to be a priority. Other players in Philadelphia’s front seven that could make game changing plays include Nolan Smith Jr., who had a crucial strip sack in the divisional round, and first team All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun.
The Eagles have seen success with their blitzes this season, giving up just two touchdowns when blitzing in the eighteen games outside of week 16 against the Commanders. In that week 16 game, though, Daniels had three touchdowns against Philadelphia’s blitz.
Washington was electric on offence against the Lions but if we are being honest, that was a defence full of backups. If the Commanders are going to pull off another upset, they need to be just as efficient on offence against a much better unit. Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz have been Daniels’ favourite targets this season but in this game receivers like Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus will have to make plays. Brown had a great game against the Lions which included a big 38-yard catch. He will look to have more of the same against a strong Eagles secondary that will be focused primarily on McLaurin.
We know that offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury trusts all of his weapons. On a crucial third down against the Lions, Kingsbury called a corner route to backup tight end, John Bates, who was lined up at fullback on the play.
Daniels might be his team’s leading rusher this season, but Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler provide versatility to Washington’s ground game. Robinson Jr. had two touchdowns and averaged over five yards a carry against the Lions while Ekeler averaged just under eight yards per attempt, mainly thanks to a big 35-yard run. Philadelphia was top ten against the run in the regular season and limited Washington to well below their season average on the ground in both meetings this year. I think Daniels will make a few plays with his legs, but he will need to win this game through the air, which is possible, despite Philadelphia’s strong secondary.
The Commanders haven’t given the ball away in the playoffs yet and if they want to win this game they need to keep that streak up
Turnovers will be huge in this matchup and just like they have done in their two playoff wins to get here, the Washington offence will need to play a clean game, keeping Daniels and the ball protected. The Commanders haven’t given the ball away in the playoffs yet and if they want to win this game they need to keep that streak up. Washington’s aggressive 4th down philosophy will likely continue in this game and that is another area where they will need to be strong to have a chance of advancing.
On special teams, Washington’s kicker Zane Gonzalez has made nine out of 12 field goals this season, including a game winning kick in the wild card round. Gonzalez also hasn’t missed an extra point attempt this season unlike Philadelphia’s kicker, Jake Elliott, who has missed four extra points this season with three of those misses coming in the playoffs. The Eagles kicker has had a rough season, making just 77.8% of his field goals in the regular season and going one of seven from 50+ yards out. But Elliott has been reliable for Philadelphia ever since he was a Super Bowl winning rookie with the team. He has never missed a field goal in the postseason and continued that streak when he made three important field goals in snowy conditions against the Rams, including a 44-yard attempt. For what it’s worth, Gonzalez missed a 44-yard attempt in a dome against the Lions in the last round.
There has never been a starting rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl and if anyone can do it, Jayden Daniels can do it. Having said that, as much as I would love for Daniels’ storyline to continue, I can’t see the Commanders winning this game. Barkley will make enough plays on offence for the Eagles even if the passing game isn’t working. To add to that, as well as Daniels is playing, Philadelphia’s defence, coordinated by Vic Fangio, will be up to the challenge of stopping the rookie sensation. While I think the Commanders can move the ball and score points, I struggle to see them coming away from this game with no giveaways. Given that the Eagles are excellent at protecting the ball, I think the turnovers will be the difference along with Barkley’s dominance.
Prediction: Commanders 24-30 Eagles
Tom Henigan
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