Inakashi Bagga
The Biden administration has expressed ‘deep concern’ following the leak of classified US documents. These documents contain an assessment of Israel’s military movements regarding an anticipated attack on Iran. They surfaced on the messaging app, Telegram, and have raised concerns over escalating regional tensions in an already sensitive geopolitical landscape. US and Israeli officials have discussed the leak, but details of the meeting are currently unknown.
‘deadly, precise and surprising’
Relations between Israel and Iran have been extremely tense following Iran’s missile attack on October 1, in which almost 200 ballistic missiles were launched. Since then, Israel has been threatening a ‘significant retaliation’ that would target Iranian oil facilities. Initially, the Israeli government claimed they would base their final decision according to the national interest, but have warned an attack would be ‘deadly, precise and surprising’. Israel can either choose to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East or confront Israel with potential backing from the US.
However, the documents suggest an attack is imminent.
Military experts deem the documents to be genuine and are connected to the US Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency. The classified information comes in the form of two documents that have been headed ‘Top Secret’, indicating that they were only to be seen by the Five Eyes intelligence allied nations Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US. The first has the title ‘Israel: Air Force continues preparations for strike on Iran and conducts a second large-force employment exercise’, and the second ‘Israel: defence forces continue key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity almost certainly for a strike on Iran.’
larger-scale version of its April attack on an Iranian radar site.
The documents indicate that Israel is planning to use their Air Force to conduct a long-range missile strike and suggest that the attack will be akin to a larger-scale version of its April attack on an Iranian radar site. It largely focuses on an investigation of Israeli drone movements which have been based on satellite information from 15-16 October.
According to the report, retaliatory measures have been carried out at multiple Israeli Air Force bases, where it specifically notes the movement of advanced munitions for a potential strike on Iran. These preparations, revealed in the leak, suggest an acceleration of Israeli military activity that fuel concerns of heightened regional tensions and draw further scrutiny from Washington. The documents also state that there is no evidence of Israel intending to use a nuclear weapon.
‘has the right to respond, but they should respond proportionally.’
However, the two documents do not mention what Israel specifically aims to target in their attack on Iran, nor do they indicate timing. The US has publicly voiced its opposition to the targeting of Israel’s nuclear research facilities or its oil sites, with Biden previously stating that Israel ‘has the right to respond, but they should respond proportionally.’
Israeli officials state that they are taking the leak extremely seriously, but it does not appear that the release of these documents will have an impact on Israel’s retaliatory attack.
Inakashi Bagga
Featured image courtesy of Akbar Nemati via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
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