Ella Koeppern
Tensions between North and South Korea have fluctuated for decades, but recently, escalating security concerns over drone activity have further strained their already fragile relationship. North and South Korea have been separated since the end of the Korean War in 1953 which ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty. As a result, the two sides are still technically at war. Reuniting with the South has become increasingly unrealistic for the North but was key until this year’s beginning.
to regard South Korea as a “principal enemy.”
Kim Jong Un announced in January that he had “abandoned the reunification goal with South Korea.” Mr. Kim said in a speech delivered at the Supreme People’s Assembly that the constitution should be amended to regard South Korea as a “principal enemy.” This has surprised many citizens in both North and South Korea as it is “highly unusual” for a North Korean leader to shift away from the long-standing policy of pursuing unification, according to Dr John Nilsson-Wright of Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics.
“acute disappointment and loss of face for Kim.”
He added it has been an “acute disappointment and loss of face for Kim.” Last November, Kim fully suspended a five-year military deal with the South which had promised to prevent military conflict in all spheres and instead deployed more forces to the border region. Since then, actions from the North have only been escalating, causing tensions to be at an all-time high. The former State Department official Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried S Hecker stated in a report for 38 North (a US-based organisation with a focus on North Korea) that they saw the situation on the Korean Peninsula as “more dangerous than it has ever been” since the start of the Korean war in 1950.
to disable North Korean drones
North Korea has been developing and deploying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) including new attack drones. Throughout 2023, Pyongyang also launched a few intercontinental ballistic missile tests including a long-range fueled missile known as the Hwasong-18 in December, showing the growth of the North Korean missile program. South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration said that it will deploy at least one anti-air laser weapons system called “Block-I” by the end of this year to disable North Korean drones.
South Korea, similar to the US and Israel’s weapons technology, hopes to develop high-powered laser guns that can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles. North Korea has flown drones across the heavily fortified border with South Korea for several years to test South Korea’s readiness. It wasn’t until December 2022 that the South accused the North of sending drones across the border for the first time in five years which led to the South firing warning shots and launching fighter jets/helicopters but failed to shoot down any drones.
Kim Jong Un vowed to introduce various types of unmanned combat equipment like attack drones in 2024, seen by foreign experts as a method to trigger insecurity and fear in one’s nation. Under Yoon Suk Yeol, the South Korean government wanted to significantly increase its number of military drones by 2026 to strengthen South Korea’s military readiness. Notable models of drones being used currently are KUS-FS, which plays a crucial role in intelligence gathering, and KAI KUS-MA, designed for short-range tactical missions.
“declaration of war”
Now, tensions have further escalated due to North Korea accusing South Korea of sending drones to scatter a “huge number” of anti-North leaflets over Pyongyang. The North warned on Monday 14th October that if another drone were detected, it would consider it a “declaration of war”
Despite Seoul’s military denying it was behind the drone flights, the North insists that Seoul is officially to blame even though it is known that the North had sent drones southward on ten occasions, according to spokesman Lee.
South Korea said it was fully ready to respond after North Korea’s units were said to be armed on the border, ready for open fire. There is currently uncertainty in South Korea regarding whether North Korea is deliberately trying to cause anxiety and confusion and if the drones were fabricated by the North or by the South’s activist groups. Despite local speculation on activist groups in the South, Park Sang-Hak (a leader of the Free North Korea Movement Coalition) denied all claims about the drone leaflets.
“lives and safety of our residents as inter-Korean relations are rapidly deteriorating.”
Kim Sung-joong, vice governor of Gyeonggi Province has taken a strong stance against such leaflets entering North Korea as he said in a media briefing that the scattering of anti-North leaflets could threaten the “lives and safety of our residents as inter-Korean relations are rapidly deteriorating.” They further enforced this by adopting 11 inter-Korean border areas as “danger zones.”
“a self-defensive measure for inhibiting war”
On Tuesday 15th October, the North blew up sections of two roads connecting North and South Korea to “completely separate” the two nations. The Korean People’s Army (KPA) described the move as “a self-defensive measure for inhibiting war”, claiming it was in response to war exercises in South Korea and the frequent presence of American nuclear assets in the region.
North Korea’s destruction of roads connecting it to South Korea serves as a powerful symbol of the growing divide between the two nations, signalling a refusal to engage in negotiations. The conflict highlights the ongoing tensions between North and South Korea, with both sides wary of each other’s military intentions and capabilities.
Nevertheless, analysts like Professor Kim Dong-yup from the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul think “the regime is well aware of the severe consequences such a conflict would bring” and therefore question the North’s ability to initiate a full-scale war.
Ella Koeppern
Featured image courtesy of Jason Mavrommaatis via Unsplash. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
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